Cattle on Feed

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456

ISSN: 1948-9080

Released April 24, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

United States Cattle on Feed Up Slightly

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on
April 1, 2015. The inventory was slightly above April 1, 2014. The inventory
included 7.46 million steers and steer calves, up 5 percent from the previous
year. This group accounted for 69 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and
heifer calves accounted for 3.34 million head, down 10 percent from 2014.

Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.81 million, slightly above
2014. Net placements were 1.74 million head. During March, placements of
cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 365,000, 600-699 pounds
were 275,000, 700-799 pounds were 449,000, and 800 pounds and greater were
720,000.

Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.63 million, 2 percent below
2014. March marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996.

Other disappearance totaled 69,000 during March, 6 percent above 2014.

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots – United States: April 1, 2014 and 2015
———————————————————————————–
:          Number           :  Percent of
Item                  :—————————:
:    2014     :    2015     :previous year
———————————————————————————–
:   —- 1,000 head —-        percent
:
On feed March 1 ……………………:   10,716        10,688          100
Placed on feed during March …………:    1,801         1,809          100
Fed cattle marketed during March …….:    1,660         1,631           98
Other disappearance during March …….:       65            69          106
On feed April 1 ……………………:   10,792        10,797          100
———————————————————————————–

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots – United States: March 1, 2014 and 2015
———————————————————————————–
:          Number           :  Percent of
Item                  :—————————:
:    2014     :    2015     :previous year
———————————————————————————–
:   —- 1,000 head —-        percent
:
On feed February 1 …………………:   10,678        10,713          100
Placed on feed during February ………:    1,658         1,551           94
Fed cattle marketed during February ….:    1,549         1,516           98
Other disappearance during February ….:       71            60           85
On feed March 1 ……………………:   10,716        10,688          100
———————————————————————————–

Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots – United States:
April 1, 2014 and 2015
———————————————————————————–
:          Number           :  Percent of
Item                  :—————————:
:    2014     :    2015     :previous year
———————————————————————————–
:    —- 1,000 Head —        percent
:
Class on feed April 1                   :
Steers and steer calves …………..:    7,075         7,455          105
Heifers and heifer calves …………:    3,717         3,342           90
———————————————————————————–

Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and United States:
2014 and 2015
—————————————————————————————————
:                 :                 :               April 1, 2015
:                 :                 :——————————————–
State      :  April 1, 2014  :  March 1, 2015  :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of
:                 :                 :    Number    :previous year :previous month
—————————————————————————————————
:     ————— 1,000 head ————–          —– percent —-
:
Arizona ……….:        277               243              241           87             99
California …….:        475               440              445           94            101
Colorado ………:        950               890              890           94            100
Idaho …………:        205               230              230          112            100
Iowa ………….:        670               660              670          100            102
Kansas ………..:      2,090             2,080            2,110          101            101
Minnesota ……..:        135               145              146          108            101
Nebraska ………:      2,470             2,500            2,530          102            101
Oklahoma ………:        275               275              285          104            104
South Dakota …..:        225               235              235          104            100
Texas …………:      2,500             2,450            2,470           99            101
Washington …….:        200               215              225          113            105
:
Other States …..:        320               325              320          100             98
:
United States ….:     10,792            10,688           10,797          100            101
—————————————————————————————————

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and
United States: 2014 and 2015
———————————————————————————————
:              :              :             During March 2015
:    During    :    During    :——————————————–
State      :  March 2014  :February 2015 :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of
:              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
———————————————————————————————
:    ———— 1,000 head ———–           —– percent —-
:
Arizona ……….:       30             19             25            83            132
California …….:       53             48             55           104            115
Colorado ………:      165            150            150            91            100
Idaho …………:       34             31             30            88             97
Iowa ………….:       71             85             90           127            106
Kansas ………..:      390            355            410           105            115
Minnesota ……..:       18             18             23           128            128
Nebraska ………:      410            400            440           107            110
Oklahoma ………:       52             42             49            94            117
South Dakota …..:       42             41             33            79             80
Texas …………:      470            285            420            89            147
Washington …….:       31             43             39           126             91
:
Other States …..:       35             34             45           129            132
:
United States ….:    1,801          1,551          1,809           100            117
———————————————————————————————

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month –
States and United States: 2014 and 2015
—————————————————————————————-
:                            During March
:———————————————————————
State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :    Total
:———————————————————————
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
—————————————————————————————-
:                             1,000 head
:
Colorado ………:  35     30     30     25     50     40     50     55     165    150
Kansas ………..:  65     60     55     65    110    110    160    175     390    410
Nebraska ………:  55     55     65     65    105    100    185    220     410    440
Texas …………: 170    115     90     70    125    120     85    115     470    420
:
Other States …..: 100    105     50     50     76     79    140    155     366    389
:
United States ….: 425    365    290    275    466    449    620    720   1,801  1,809

:———————————————————————
:                           During February
:———————————————————————
State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :    Total
:———————————————————————
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
:———————————————————————
:                             1,000 head
:
Colorado ………:  30     25     25     25     35     40     45     60     135    150
Kansas ………..:  60     60     60     65     90     95    125    135     335    355
Nebraska ………:  65     60     90     65    105    100    170    175     430    400
Texas …………: 155    100     90     45    100     75     65     65     410    285
:
Other States …..:  80     85     65     65     88     86    115    125     348    361
:
United States ….: 390    330    330    265    418    396    520    560   1,658  1,551
—————————————————————————————-

Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and United States:
2014 and 2015
———————————————————————————————
:              :              :             During March 2015
:    During    :    During    :——————————————–
State      :  March 2014  :February 2015 :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of
:              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
———————————————————————————————
:    ———— 1,000 head ———–           —– percent —-
:
Arizona ……….:       24             19             21            88            111
California …….:       70             43             46            66            107
Colorado ………:      130            145            140           108             97
Idaho …………:       33             29             29            88            100
Iowa ………….:       69             74             79           114            107
Kansas ………..:      345            355            370           107            104
Minnesota ……..:       16             13             21           131            162
Nebraska ………:      395            385            395           100            103
Oklahoma ………:       46             30             38            83            127
South Dakota …..:       35             35             32            91             91
Texas …………:      430            315            385            90            122
Washington …….:       29             36             28            97             78
:
Other States …..:       38             37             47           124            127
:
United States ….:    1,660          1,516          1,631            98            108
———————————————————————————————

Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and United States:
2014 and 2015
———————————————————————————————
:              :              :             During March 2015
:    During    :    During    :——————————————–
State      :  March 2014  :February 2015 :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of
:              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
———————————————————————————————
:      ———- 1,000 head ———-            —– percent —-
:
Arizona ……….:       1              4              6            600            150
California …….:       8              5              4             50             80
Colorado ………:       5              5             10            200            200
Idaho …………:       1              2              1            100             50
Iowa ………….:       2              1              1             50            100
Kansas ………..:      15             10             10             67            100
Minnesota ……..:       1              1              1            100            100
Nebraska ………:      15             15             15            100            100
Oklahoma ………:       1              2              1            100             50
South Dakota …..:       2              1              1             50            100
Texas …………:      10             10             15            150            150
Washington …….:       2              2              1             50             50
:
Other States …..:       2              2              3            150            150
:
United States ….:      65             60             69            106            115
———————————————————————————————

Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Quarter – States and United States:
2014 and 2015
————————————————————————————————–
:       Steers and steer calves        :      Heifers and heifer calves
:—————————————————————————–
State       :   Apr 1,   :   Jan 1,   :   Apr 1,   :   Apr 1,   :   Jan 1,   :   Apr 1,
:    2014    :    2015    :    2015    :    2014    :    2015    :    2015
————————————————————————————————–
:                                 1,000 Head
:
Arizona …………:     272          246          237            5            3            4
California ………:     435          395          410           40           30           35
Colorado ………..:     630          580          610          320          320          280
Idaho …………..:     120          140          150           85           90           80
Iowa ……………:     490          490          520          180          150          150
Kansas ………….:   1,130        1,100        1,190          960          950          920
Minnesota ……….:     103          109          128           32           28           18
Nebraska ………..:   1,690        1,620        1,830          780          840          700
Oklahoma ………..:     180          170          200           95           85           85
South Dakota …….:     135          145          150           90           85           85
Texas …………..:   1,550        1,600        1,680          950          900          790
Washington ………:     125          123          140           75           87           85
:
Other States …….:     215          230          210          105          110          110
:
United States ……:   7,075        6,948        7,455        3,717        3,678        3,342
————————————————————————————————–

Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage,
hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to
produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being
“backgrounded only” for later sale as feeders or later placement in another
feedlot.

Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will
produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the
slaughter market.

Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter
market.

Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture,
and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.

Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United
States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for
cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16
States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of
the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.
Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States.
Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the “Other
States” estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and
Wyoming. The “Other States” category represents all cattle on feed with a
capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States.

Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the
Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis
submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed
for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month
when establishing the current estimates.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to
month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision
in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all
monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and
annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions.
The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand
data, and any other data that may have been received after the original
estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census
of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and
estimates become final.

Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every
State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors
such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and
processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.
They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection
process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report,
the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected items in the table on the
following page. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and
latest estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for cattle on feed inventory
estimates over the past 24 months is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current
estimate of 10.8 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of
10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent.

The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of
differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using
estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate
and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 53,000 head,
ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has
been above the latest estimate 19 times and has been below the latest
estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to
understate or overstate final inventory.

Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
————————————————————————————————————————–
:  Root mean   :  90 percent  :        Difference between first and latest estimate
: square error :  confidence  :         :         :         :               :
:              :    level     :————————————————————-
Item             :              :              :         :         :         :            Months
:              :              :         :         :         :——————————-
:              :              : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest  : Above latest
————————————————————————————————————————–
:   percent        percent        ——– 1,000 ——-           —– number —–
:
Number on feed ……………:     0.6            1.0          53         0        97            4              19
:
Placements ……………….:     1.1            2.0          14         1        55           11              13
:
Marketings ……………….:     0.9            1.6           8         0        47            0               8
————————————————————————————————————————–

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock
Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent
to [email protected].

Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ……….. (202) 720-3570

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ……….. (202) 690-2424
Travis Averill – Cattle, Cattle on Feed …… (202) 720-3040
Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter …… (202) 720-3240
Doug Bounds – Hogs and Pigs ……………… (202) 720-3106
Donnie Fike – Dairy Products …………….. (202) 690-3236
Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
Evan Schulz – Sheep and Goats ……………. (202) 720-6147

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