Turkey Hatchery

0
531
ISSN: 1949-1964

Released March 17, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

Eggs in Incubators on March 1 Up 5 Percent from Last Year

Turkey eggs in incubators on March 1, 2015, in the United States totaled 
27.4 million, up 5 percent from March 1, 2014. Eggs in incubators were up 
1 percent from the February 1, 2015 total of 27.1 million eggs.  

Poults Hatched During February Up 2 Percent from Last Year

Turkey poults hatched during February 2015, in the United States totaled 
21.9 million, up 2 percent from February 2014. Poults hatched were down 
9 percent from the January 2015 total of 24.0 million poults.  

Net Poults Placed During February Down 2 Percent from Last Year

The 20.5 million net poults placed during February 2015 in the United States 
were down 2 percent from the number placed during the same month a year 
earlier. Net placements were down 9 percent from the January 2015 total of 
22.4 million.

Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2013-2015
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  : Eggs in incubators  :Percent of:   Poults hatched    :Percent of
                  :   first of month    : previous :    entire month     : previous 
       Month      :---------------------:   year   :---------------------:   year   
                  :          :          :          :          :          :          
                  :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :          :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :  --- 1,000 eggs --    percent        1,000 poults      percent  
                  :                                                                 
September ........:  25,538     27,299      107       20,985     22,866      109    
October ..........:  26,480     27,733      105       22,939     23,764      104    
November .........:  26,393     28,162      107       21,319     21,936      103    
December .........:  26,492     28,866      109       22,085     24,660      112    
January ..........:  27,299     29,281      107       23,447     24,023      102    
February .........:  26,934     27,144      101       21,506     21,916      102    
March ............:  26,038     27,435      105       22,388                        
April ............:  27,202                           22,808                        
May ..............:  29,022                           24,194                        
June .............:  28,924                           23,651                        
July .............:  28,584                           24,413                        
August ...........:  27,923                           23,518                        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2013-2015
[Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period
has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :      Total all      :Percent of:     Cumulative      :Percent of
                  :       breeds        : previous :        total        : previous 
       Month      :---------------------:   year   :---------------------:   year   
                  :          :          :          :          :          :          
                  :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :          :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :     1,000 poults      percent    -- 1,000 poults --    percent  
                  :                                                                 
September ........:  19,637     21,188      108       19,637     21,188      108    
October ..........:  20,916     21,712      104       40,553     42,900      106    
November .........:  20,053     20,379      102       60,606     63,279      104    
December .........:  21,149     22,516      106       81,755     85,795      105    
January ..........:  22,113     22,383      101      103,868    108,178      104    
February .........:  20,906     20,466       98      124,774    128,644      103    
March ............:  21,562                          146,336                        
April ............:  22,626                          168,962                        
May ..............:  23,313                          192,275                        
June .............:  23,453                          215,728                        
July .............:  24,238                          239,966                        
August ...........:  23,240                          263,206                        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all 
known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all 
known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their 
lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey 
hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire 
as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to 
respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not 
respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all 
hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate.

Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive 
the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. 
Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and 
to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated 
based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare 
these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic 
trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural 
Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to 
State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates 
are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult 
Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults.

Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 
31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period 
corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be 
available for slaughter during the calendar year.

States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho, 
Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, 
New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and 
Wisconsin.

Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected 
data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey 
Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery 
Production - Annual Summary report in April.

Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known 
operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, 
estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes 
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While the affects of these 
errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality 
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all 
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the 
"Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. 
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past 
performance and is computed using the differences between first and final 
estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the 
first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.4 percent. This means 
that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or 
below the current estimate of 27.4 million eggs by more than 1.4 percent. 
Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent.

Reliability of March Turkey Hatchery Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   :  Root mean  : 90 percent  :     Difference between first and latest estimate     
                                   :square error : confidence  :        :        :        :             :             
                                   :             :    level    :------------------------------------------------------
                Item               :             :             :        :        :        :          Months           
                                   :             :             :        :        :        :---------------------------
                                   :             :             :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   :   percent       percent      -------- 1,000 -------        ---- number ----      
                                   :                                                                                  
Eggs in incubators ................:     1.4           2.3        267        0     1,123        19             4      
                                   :                                                                                  
Poults hatched ....................:     0.7           1.2        123        0       414        15             5      
                                   :                                                                                  
Net poult placements ..............:     1.4           2.4        260       10       631        12            12      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National 
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries 
may be sent to [email protected]

Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ..................................... (202) 720-3570

Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section .............. (202) 720-4447
   Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage ..................................... (202) 720-4751
   Heidi Gleich - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ...................... (202) 720-0585
   Michael Klamm - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ..... (202) 690-3237
   Tom Kruchten - Census of Aquaculture ................................... (202) 690-4870
   Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs ............................................. (202) 690-8632
   Sammy Neal - Catfish Production, Egg Products, Mink, Trout Production .. (202) 720-3244
   Joshua O'Rear - Honey .................................................. (202) 690-3676

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[email protected]. 
  
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