United States cattle on feed up 3 percent

0
497
Cattle on Feed

ISSN: 1948-9080

Released September 18, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

United States Cattle on Feed Up 3 Percent
	
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for 
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.99 million head on 
September 1, 2015. The inventory was 3 percent above September 1, 2014. 

Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.63 million head, 5 percent 
below 2014. Net placements were 1.57 million head. During August, placements 
of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000 head, 600-699 
pounds were 215,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 362,000 head, and 800 pounds 
and greater were 660,000 head. Placements are the lowest for August since the 
series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.59 million head, 6 percent 
below 2014. Marketings are the lowest for August since the series began in 
1996.  

Other disappearance totaled 60,000 head during August, 9 percent below 2014.

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: September 1, 2014 and 2015
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :          Number           :  Percent of  
                  Item                  :---------------------------:              
                                        :    2014     :    2015     :previous year 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    ---- 1,000 head ---        percent    
                                        :                                          
On feed August 1 .......................:    9,752        10,002          103      
Placed on feed during August ...........:    1,725         1,632           95      
Fed cattle marketed during August ......:    1,692         1,588           94      
Other disappearance during August ......:       66            60           91      
On feed September 1 ....................:    9,719         9,986          103      
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: August 1, 2014 and 2015
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :          Number           :  Percent of  
                  Item                  :---------------------------:              
                                        :    2014     :    2015     :previous year 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :   ---- 1,000 head ----        percent    
                                        :                                          
On feed July 1 .........................:   10,043        10,236          102      
Placed on feed during July .............:    1,559         1,547           99      
Fed cattle marketed during July ........:    1,787         1,725           97      
Other disappearance during July ........:       63            56           89      
On feed August 1 .......................:    9,752        10,002          103      
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States:
2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                 :                 :             September 1, 2015              
                  :                 :                 :--------------------------------------------
       State      :September 1, 2014: August 1, 2015  :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :                 :                 :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :      -------------- 1,000 head -------------           ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                                
Arizona ..........:        257               239             241            94            101      
California .......:        415               455             455           110            100      
Colorado .........:        780               790             780           100             99      
Idaho ............:        170               220             215           126             98      
Iowa .............:        580               630             620           107             98      
Kansas ...........:      1,950             1,930           1,950           100            101      
Minnesota ........:        112               133             140           125            105      
Nebraska .........:      2,110             2,200           2,200           104            100      
Oklahoma .........:        245               250             250           102            100      
South Dakota .....:        175               210             205           117             98      
Texas ............:      2,450             2,440           2,450           100            100      
Washington .......:        180               210             195           108             93      
                  :                                                                                
Other States .....:        295               295             285            97             97      
                  :                                                                                
United States ....:      9,719            10,002           9,986           103            100      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and
United States: 2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :              :              :             During August 2015             
                  :    During    :    During    :--------------------------------------------
       State      : August 2014  :  July 2015   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :    ------------ 1,000 head -----------           ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                          
Arizona ..........:       21             23             21           100             91      
California .......:       40             41             41           103            100      
Colorado .........:      145             90            130            90            144      
Idaho ............:       33             37             36           109             97      
Iowa .............:       63             71             70           111             99      
Kansas ...........:      410            395            370            90             94      
Minnesota ........:       15             11             22           147            200      
Nebraska .........:      425            390            410            96            105      
Oklahoma .........:       50             38             50           100            132      
South Dakota .....:       35             17             31            89            182      
Texas ............:      410            365            385            94            105      
Washington .......:       44             34             30            68             88      
                  :                                                                          
Other States .....:       34             35             36           106            103      
                  :                                                                          
United States ....:    1,725          1,547          1,632            95            105      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month -
States and United States: 2014 and 2015
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                            During August                            
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
       State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :    Total    
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                             1,000 head                              
                  :                                                                     
Colorado .........:  30     20     15     10     35     30     65     70     145    130 
Kansas ...........:  75     65     80     65    110     95    145    145     410    370 
Nebraska .........:  55     50     50     35     95     85    225    240     425    410 
Texas ............: 170    175     95     70     85     85     60     55     410    385 
                  :                                                                     
Other States .....:  80     85     45     35     70     67    140    150     335    337 
                  :                                                                     
United States ....: 410    395    285    215    395    362    635    660   1,725  1,632 

                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                             During July                             
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
       State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :    Total    
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                             1,000 head                              
                  :                                                                     
Colorado .........:  25     20     15     15     20     15     30     40      90     90 
Kansas ...........:  80     65     70     70    110    115    140    145     400    395 
Nebraska .........:  55     40     50     50     85     85    185    215     375    390 
Texas ............: 185    155     85     70     85     65     55     75     410    365 
                  :                                                                     
Other States .....:  80     85     40     30     54     47    110    145     284    307 
                  :                                                                     
United States ....: 425    365    260    235    354    327    520    620   1,559  1,547 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States:
2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :              :              :             During August 2015             
                  :    During    :    During    :--------------------------------------------
       State      : August 2014  :  July 2015   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :    ------------ 1,000 head -----------           ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                          
Arizona ..........:       25             22             17            68             77      
California .......:       40             41             36            90             88      
Colorado .........:      150            125            135            90            108      
Idaho ............:       37             41             40           108             98      
Iowa .............:       80             80             77            96             96      
Kansas ...........:      345            395            340            99             86      
Minnesota ........:       17             18             14            82             78      
Nebraska .........:      440            455            400            91             88      
Oklahoma .........:       44             47             49           111            104      
South Dakota .....:       34             34             34           100            100      
Texas ............:      415            395            360            87             91      
Washington .......:       33             38             44           133            116      
                  :                                                                          
Other States .....:       32             34             42           131            124      
                  :                                                                          
United States ....:    1,692          1,725          1,588            94             92      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States:
2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :              :              :             During August 2015             
                  :    During    :    During    :--------------------------------------------
       State      : August 2014  :  July 2015   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :      ---------- 1,000 head ----------            ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                          
Arizona ..........:       1              2              2            200            100      
California .......:       5              5              5            100            100      
Colorado .........:       5              5              5            100            100      
Idaho ............:       1              1              1            100            100      
Iowa .............:       3              1              3            100            300      
Kansas ...........:      15             10             10             67            100      
Minnesota ........:       1              1              1            100            100      
Nebraska .........:      15             15             10             67             67      
Oklahoma .........:       1              1              1            100            100      
South Dakota .....:       1              3              2            200             67      
Texas ............:      15             10             15            100            150      
Washington .......:       1              1              1            100            100      
                  :                                                                          
Other States .....:       2              1              4            200            400      
                  :                                                                          
United States ....:      66             56             60             91            107      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, 
hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to 
produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being 
"backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another 
feedlot.

Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will 
produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the 
slaughter market.

Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter 
market.

Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, 
and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.

Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United 
States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for 
cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 
States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of 
the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. 
Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. 
Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other 
States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and 
Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a 
capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States.

Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the 
Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis 
submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed 
for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month 
when establishing the current estimates.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to 
month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision 
in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all 
monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and 
annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. 
The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand 
data, and any other data that may have been received after the original 
estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census 
of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and 
estimates become final.

Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every 
State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to 
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors 
such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and 
processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. 
They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection 
process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and 
reasonableness.
 
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, 
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the 
following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based 
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and 
latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory 
estimates over the past 24 months is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current 
estimate of 9.99 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 
10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent.

The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of 
differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using 
estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate 
and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 49,000 head, 
ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has 
been above the latest estimate 16 times and has been below the latest 
estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to 
understate or overstate final inventory. 

Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :  Root mean   :  90 percent  :        Difference between first and latest estimate         
                              : square error :  confidence  :         :         :         :               :               
                              :              :    level     :-------------------------------------------------------------
             Item             :              :              :         :         :         :            Months             
                              :              :              :         :         :         :-------------------------------
                              :              :              : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest  : Above latest  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :   percent        percent        -------- 1,000 -------           ----- number -----       
                              :                                                                                           
Number on feed ...............:     0.6            1.0          49         0        97            4              16       
                              :                                                                                           
Placements ...................:     0.8            1.4          10         0        37           11               9       
                              :                                                                                           
Marketings ...................:     0.4            0.8           3         0        29            0               4       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock 
Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact 
for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to 
[email protected].

Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ...........  (202) 690-2424
   Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240
   Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106
   Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236
   Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040
   Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
   Vacant - Sheep and Goats ..................... (202) 720-3570

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