United States Cattle on Feed Up 3 Percent

0
433
Cattle on feed

ISSN: 1948-9080

Released August 21, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).


Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for 
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.0 million head on 
August 1, 2015. The inventory was 3 percent above August 1, 2014. 

Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.55 million head, 1 percent below 
2014. Net placements were 1.49 million head. During July, placements of 
cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 365,000 head, 600-699 
pounds were 235,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 327,000 head, and 800 pounds 
and greater were 620,000 head. Placements are the lowest for July since the 
series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.73 million head, 3 percent 
below 2014. Marketings are the lowest for July since the series began in 
1996.

Other disappearance totaled 56,000 head during July, 11 percent below 2014.

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: August 1, 2014 and 2015
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :          Number           :  Percent of  
                  Item                  :---------------------------:              
                                        :    2014     :    2015     :previous year 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :   ---- 1,000 head ----        percent    
                                        :                                          
On feed July 1 .........................:   10,043        10,236          102      
Placed on feed during July .............:    1,559         1,547           99      
Fed cattle marketed during July ........:    1,787         1,725           97      
Other disappearance during July ........:       63            56           89      
On feed August 1 .......................:    9,752        10,002          103      
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: July 1, 2014 and 2015
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :          Number           :  Percent of  
                  Item                  :---------------------------:              
                                        :    2014     :    2015     :previous year 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :   ---- 1,000 head ----        percent    
                                        :                                          
On feed June 1 .........................:   10,497        10,571          101      
Placed on feed during June .............:    1,468         1,481          101      
Fed cattle marketed during June ........:    1,847         1,747           95      
Other disappearance during June ........:       75            69           92      
On feed July 1 .........................:   10,043        10,236          102      
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States:
2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                 :                 :               August 1, 2015               
                  :                 :                 :--------------------------------------------
       State      : August 1, 2014  :  July 1, 2015   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :                 :                 :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :      -------------- 1,000 head --------------          ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                                
Arizona ..........:        262               240              239           91            100      
California .......:        420               460              455          108             99      
Colorado .........:        790               830              790          100             95      
Idaho ............:        175               225              220          126             98      
Iowa .............:        600               640              630          105             98      
Kansas ...........:      1,900             1,940            1,930          102             99      
Minnesota ........:        115               141              133          116             94      
Nebraska .........:      2,140             2,280            2,200          103             96      
Oklahoma .........:        240               260              250          104             96      
South Dakota .....:        175               230              210          120             91      
Texas ............:      2,470             2,480            2,440           99             98      
Washington .......:        170               215              210          124             98      
                  :                                                                                
Other States .....:        295               295              295          100            100      
                  :                                                                                
United States ....:      9,752            10,236           10,002          103             98      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and
United States: 2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :              :              :              During July 2015              
                  :    During    :    During    :--------------------------------------------
       State      :  July 2014   :  June 2015   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :    ------------ 1,000 head -----------           ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                          
Arizona ..........:       23             28             23           100             82      
California .......:       39             45             41           105             91      
Colorado .........:       90             80             90           100            113      
Idaho ............:       37             31             37           100            119      
Iowa .............:       56             67             71           127            106      
Kansas ...........:      400            335            395            99            118      
Minnesota ........:       10             17             11           110             65      
Nebraska .........:      375            375            390           104            104      
Oklahoma .........:       32             38             38           119            100      
South Dakota .....:       20             28             17            85             61      
Texas ............:      410            375            365            89             97      
Washington .......:       36             30             34            94            113      
                  :                                                                          
Other States .....:       31             32             35           113            109      
                  :                                                                          
United States ....:    1,559          1,481          1,547            99            104      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month -
States and United States: 2014 and 2015
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                             During July                             
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
       State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :    Total    
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                             1,000 head                              
                  :                                                                     
Colorado .........:  25     20     15     15     20     15     30     40      90     90 
Kansas ...........:  80     65     70     70    110    115    140    145     400    395 
Nebraska .........:  55     40     50     50     85     85    185    215     375    390 
Texas ............: 185    155     85     70     85     65     55     75     410    365 
                  :                                                                     
Other States .....:  80     85     40     30     54     47    110    145     284    307 
                  :                                                                     
United States ....: 425    365    260    235    354    327    520    620   1,559  1,547 

                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                             During June                             
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
       State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :    Total    
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                             1,000 head                              
                  :                                                                     
Colorado .........:  30     20     15     15     20     15     30     30      95     80 
Kansas ...........:  65     60     60     65     80     95    110    115     315    335 
Nebraska .........:  55     50     50     50     90     75    190    200     385    375 
Texas ............: 155    125     75     80     85     95     55     75     370    375 
                  :                                                                     
Other States .....: 100     95     45     40     53     56    105    125     303    316 
                  :                                                                     
United States ....: 405    350    245    250    328    336    490    545   1,468  1,481 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States:
2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :              :              :              During July 2015              
                  :    During    :    During    :--------------------------------------------
       State      :  July 2014   :  June 2015   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :    ------------ 1,000 head -----------           ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                          
Arizona ..........:       26             25             22            85             88      
California .......:       47             40             41            87            103      
Colorado .........:      145            125            125            86            100      
Idaho ............:       41             40             41           100            103      
Iowa .............:       74             76             80           108            105      
Kansas ...........:      390            400            395           101             99      
Minnesota ........:       15             18             18           120            100      
Nebraska .........:      465            480            455            98             95      
Oklahoma .........:       46             52             47           102             90      
South Dakota .....:       39             26             34            87            131      
Texas ............:      415            385            395            95            103      
Washington .......:       40             44             38            95             86      
                  :                                                                          
Other States .....:       44             36             34            77             94      
                  :                                                                          
United States ....:    1,787          1,747          1,725            97             99      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States:
2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :              :              :              During July 2015              
                  :    During    :    During    :--------------------------------------------
       State      :  July 2014   :  June 2015   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :      ---------- 1,000 head ----------            ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                          
Arizona ..........:       7              1              2             29            200      
California .......:       7              5              5             71            100      
Colorado .........:       5             15              5            100             33      
Idaho ............:       1              1              1            100            100      
Iowa .............:       2              1              1             50            100      
Kansas ...........:      10             15             10            100             67      
Minnesota ........:       1              1              1            100            100      
Nebraska .........:      10             15             15            150            100      
Oklahoma .........:       1              1              1            100            100      
South Dakota .....:       1              2              3            300            150      
Texas ............:      15             10             10             67            100      
Washington .......:       1              1              1            100            100      
                  :                                                                          
Other States .....:       2              1              1             50            100      
                  :                                                                          
United States ....:      63             69             56             89             81      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, 
hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to 
produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being 
"backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another 
feedlot.

Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will 
produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the 
slaughter market.

Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter 
market.

Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, 
and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.

Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United 
States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for 
cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 
States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of 
the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. 
Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. 
Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other 
States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and 
Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a 
capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States.

Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the 
Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis 
submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed 
for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month 
when establishing the current estimates.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to 
month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision 
in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all 
monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and 
annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. 
The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand 
data, and any other data that may have been received after the original 
estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census 
of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and 
estimates become final.

Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every 
State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to 
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors 
such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and 
processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. 
They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection 
process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and 
reasonableness.
 
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, 
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the 
following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based 
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and 
latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory 
estimates over the past 24 months is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current 
estimate of 10.0 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 
10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent.

The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of 
differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using 
estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate 
and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 50,000 head, 
ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has 
been above the latest estimate 17 times and has been below the latest 
estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to 
understate or overstate final inventory. 

Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :  Root mean   :  90 percent  :        Difference between first and latest estimate         
                              : square error :  confidence  :         :         :         :               :               
                              :              :    level     :-------------------------------------------------------------
             Item             :              :              :         :         :         :            Months             
                              :              :              :         :         :         :-------------------------------
                              :              :              : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest  : Above latest  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :   percent        percent        -------- 1,000 -------           ----- number -----       
                              :                                                                                           
Number on feed ...............:     0.6            1.0          50         0        97            4              17       
                              :                                                                                           
Placements ...................:     0.9            1.5          11         0        37           11              10       
                              :                                                                                           
Marketings ...................:     0.5            0.9           4         0        30            0               5       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock 
Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact 
for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to 
[email protected].

Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ...........  (202) 690-2424
   Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240
   Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106
   Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236
   Michael Klamm - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ....... (202) 720-3040
   Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
   Vacant - Sheep and Goats ..................... (202) 720-3570

Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following 
ways:

 	All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web 
site: http://www.nass.usda.gov

 	Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-
mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit 
http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Follow NASS" box under "Receive 
reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports 
you would like to receive. 

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural 
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: 
[email protected]. 
  
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against 
its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, 
color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, 
reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial 
or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's 
income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic 
information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded 
by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs 
and/or employment activities.) 
If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, 
complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online 
at http://www.ascr.usda.gov/complaint_filing_cust.html, or at any USDA 
office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a 
letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your 
completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of 
Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, 
S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at 
[email protected]. 

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here