Crop Production

0
505

Crop Production

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released February 10, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Unchanged from January Forecast

The United States all orange forecast for the 2014-2015 season is
6.72 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 1 percent
from the 2013-2014 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
103 million boxes (4.64 million tons), is unchanged from the previous
forecast but down 2 percent from last season’s final utilization. Early,
midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 48.0 million boxes

(2.16 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 10
percent
last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at
55.0 million boxes (2.48 million tons), is unchanged from previous forecast
but up 7 percent from last season’s final utilization.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the
2014-2015 season is 1.57 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 1
percent
from the January forecast but virtually unchanged from last season’s final
yield of 1.57 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at
1.46 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last month but down 4 percent from
last season’s yield. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.69 gallons,
up 3 percent from last year’s final yield of 1.64 gallons per box but
down 2 percent from last month’s forecast. All projections of yield assume
the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the
past
several seasons.

This report was approved on February 10, 2015.

Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Robert Johansson

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
James M. Harris

Contents

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United
States: 2013 and 2014………  4

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States:
2013-2014 and Forecasted
February 1,
2015……………………..……………………………………….
……………..  5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015..  6

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015….  8

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2014 and 2015 (Domestic
Units)…………………………. 10

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2014 and
2015……………………..…… 11

Percent of Normal Precipitation
Map……………………………………………………………. 12

Departure from Normal Temperature
Map………………………………………………………….. 12

January Weather
Summary…………………..……………………………………….
…………. 13

January Agricultural
Summary…………………..……………………………………….
…….. 13

Crop
Comments………………….……………………………………….
…………………… 14

Statistical
Methodology……………….……………………………………….
…………….. 16

Information
Contacts………………….……………………………………….
…………….. 17

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United
States: 2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
————————
Use and State        :    Area harvested    :   Yield per acre 1/
:    Production 1/

:—————————–—————————————-
:   2013    :   2014   :   2013    :   2014
:   2013   :   2014
—————————————————————————-
————————
:      1,000 acres         —– tons —–
— 1,000 tons —
:

For sugar                     :

Florida ………………….:   400.0      395.9       34.3        38.4
13,720     15,203
Hawaii 2/ ………………..:    15.5       16.8       87.2        82.0
1,352      1,378
Louisiana 2/ ……………..:   410.0      385.0       30.5        30.0
12,505     11,550
Texas 2/ …………………:    34.1       31.5       42.4        37.9
1,446      1,194
:

United States …………….:   859.6      829.2       33.8        35.4
29,023     29,325
:

For seed                      :

Florida ………………….:    16.0       16.1       42.5        42.8
680        689
Hawaii 2/ ………………..:     2.2        2.2       20.5        20.4
45         45
Louisiana 2/ ……………..:    32.0       25.0       30.5        30.0
976        750
Texas 2/ …………………:     1.0        1.6       37.0        37.9
37         61
:

United States …………….:    51.2       44.9       33.9        34.4
1,738      1,545
:

For sugar and seed            :

Florida ………………….:   416.0      412.0       34.6        38.6
14,400     15,892
Hawaii 2/ ………………..:    17.7       19.0       78.9        74.9
1,397      1,423
Louisiana 2/ ……………..:   442.0      410.0       30.5        30.0
13,481     12,300
Texas 2/ …………………:    35.1       33.1       42.3        37.9
1,483      1,255
:

United States …………….:   910.8      874.1       33.8        35.3
30,761     30,870
—————————————————————————-
————————
1/ Net tons.

2/ Estimates are carried forward from the “Crop Production 2014 Summary”
released January 2015.

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States:
2013-2014 and Forecasted
February 1, 2015
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
the completion of harvest the
following year]
—————————————————————————-
———————————-
:     Utilized production boxes 1/      :
Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State
:—————————–———————————————-
—-
:     2013-2014     :     2014-2015     :
2013-2014     :     2014-2015
—————————————————————————-
———————————-
:      ——- 1,000 boxes ——-
——- 1,000 tons ——
Oranges                       :

Early, mid, and Navel 2/      :

California 3/ …………..:       39,000              40,000
1,560               1,600
Florida ………………..:       53,300              48,000
2,398               2,160
Texas 3/ ……………….:        1,400               1,670
60                  71
:

United States …………..:       93,700              89,670
4,018               3,831
:

Valencia                      :

California 3/ …………..:       11,000              10,000
440                 400
Florida ………………..:       51,300              55,000
2,309               2,475
Texas 3/ ……………….:          376                 345
16                  15
:

United States …………..:       62,676              65,345
2,765               2,890
:

All                           :

California 3/ …………..:       50,000              50,000
2,000               2,000
Florida ………………..:      104,600             103,000
4,707               4,635
Texas 3/ ……………….:        1,776               2,015
76                  86
:

United States …………..:      156,376             155,015
6,783               6,721
:

Grapefruit                    :

White                         :

Florida ………………..:        4,150               4,000
176                 170
:

Colored                       :

Florida ………………..:       11,500              11,000
489                 468
:

All                           :

California 3/ …………..:        4,000               4,000
160                 160
Florida ………………..:       15,650              15,000
665                 638
Texas 3/ ……………….:        5,700               6,000
228                 240
:

United States …………..:       25,350              25,000
1,053               1,038
:

Tangerines and mandarins      :

Arizona 3/ 4/ …………….:          200                 220
8                   9
California 3/ 4/ ………….:       14,500              15,500
580                 620
Florida ………………….:        2,900               2,500
138                 119
:

United States …………….:       17,600              18,220
726                 748
:

Lemons 3/                     :

Arizona ………………….:        1,800               2,200
72                  88
California ……………….:       19,000              20,000
760                 800
:

United States …………….:       20,800              22,200
832                 888
:

Tangelos                      :

Florida ………………….:          880                 700
40                  32
—————————————————————————-
———————————-
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85;
grapefruit in California-80,
Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and
California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80;
tangelos-90.

2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel)
and midseason varieties in Florida
and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in
Florida.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
—————————————————————————-
—-
:     Area planted      :    Area harvested

Crop
:—————————–——————
:   2014    :   2015    :   2014    :   2015

—————————————————————————-
—-
:                  1,000 acres

:

Grains and hay                  :

Barley …………………….:    2,975                   2,443

Corn for grain 1/ …………..:   90,597                  83,136

Corn for silage …………….:     (NA)                   6,371

Hay, all …………………..:     (NA)                  57,092

Alfalfa ………………….:     (NA)                  18,445

All other ………………..:     (NA)                  38,647

Oats ………………………:    2,723                   1,029

Proso millet ……………….:      505                     430

Rice ………………………:    2,939                   2,919

Rye ……………………….:    1,434                     258

Sorghum for grain 1/ ………..:    7,138                   6,401

Sorghum for silage ………….:     (NA)                     315

Wheat, all …………………:   56,822                  46,381

Winter …………………..:   42,399     40,452       32,304

Durum ……………………:    1,398                   1,337

Other spring ……………..:   13,025                  12,740

:

Oilseeds                        :

Canola …………………….:  1,714.0                 1,555.7

Cottonseed …………………:      (X)                     (X)

Flaxseed …………………..:      311                     302

Mustard seed ……………….:     33.6                    31.2

Peanuts ……………………:  1,354.0                 1,325.0

Rapeseed …………………..:      2.2                     2.1

Safflower ………………….:    181.5                   170.2

Soybeans for beans ………….:   83,701                  83,061

Sunflower ………………….:  1,560.8                 1,507.6

:

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:

Cotton, all ………………..: 11,037.0                 9,707.4

Upland …………………..: 10,845.0                 9,518.0

American Pima …………….:    192.0                   189.4

Sugarbeets …………………:  1,161.6                 1,147.2

Sugarcane ………………….:     (NA)                   874.1

Tobacco ……………………:     (NA)                   378.4

:

Dry beans, peas, and lentils    :

Austrian winter peas ………..:     24.0                    16.8

Dry edible beans ……………:  1,718.9                 1,665.7

Dry edible peas …………….:    935.0                   899.5

Lentils ……………………:    281.0                   259.0

Wrinkled seed peas ………….:     (NA)                    (NA)

:

Potatoes and miscellaneous      :

Coffee (Hawaii) …………….:     (NA)                     7.9

Hops ………………………:     (NA)                    38.0

Peppermint oil ……………..:     (NA)                    63.1

Potatoes, all ………………:  1,061.1                 1,049.5

Spring …………………..:     73.8                    71.1

Summer …………………..:     50.4                    48.9

Fall …………………….:    936.9                   929.5

Spearmint oil ………………:     (NA)                    24.4

Sweet potatoes ……………..:    137.3                   135.2

Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ……………:     (NA)                     0.4

—————————————————————————-
—-
See footnote(s) at end of table.
–continued

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop year.
Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
—————————————————————————-
———–
:   Yield per acre    :
Production
Crop
:—————————–—————–
:   2014   :   2015   :    2014
:   2015
—————————————————————————-
———–
:                       —— 1,000
—–
:

Grains and hay                          :

Barley ……………………..bushels:   72.4                   176,794

Corn for grain ………………bushels:  171.0                14,215,532

Corn for silage ………………..tons:   20.1                   128,048

Hay, all ………………………tons:   2.45                   139,798

Alfalfa ……………………..tons:   3.33                    61,446

All other ……………………tons:   2.03                    78,352

Oats ……………………….bushels:   67.7                    69,684

Proso millet ………………..bushels:   31.4                    13,483

Rice 3/ ………………………..cwt:  7,572                   221,035

Rye ………………………..bushels:   27.9                     7,189

Sorghum for grain ……………bushels:   67.6                   432,575

Sorghum for silage ……………..tons:   13.1                     4,123

Wheat, all ………………….bushels:   43.7                 2,025,651

Winter ……………………bushels:   42.6                 1,377,526

Durum …………………….bushels:   39.7                    53,087

Other spring ………………bushels:   46.7                   595,038

:

Oilseeds                                :

Canola ………………………pounds:  1,614                 2,510,995

Cottonseed …………………….tons:    (X)                   5,314.0

Flaxseed ……………………bushels:   21.1                     6,368

Mustard seed …………………pounds:    930                    29,004

Peanuts ……………………..pounds:  3,932                 5,210,100

Rapeseed …………………….pounds:  1,233                     2,590

Safflower ……………………pounds:  1,226                   208,643

Soybeans for beans …………..bushels:   47.8                 3,968,823

Sunflower ……………………pounds:  1,469                 2,214,835

:

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :

Cotton, all 3/ ………………..bales:    795                  16,084.0

Upland 3/ …………………..bales:    781                  15,496.0

American Pima 3/ …………….bales:  1,490                     588.0

Sugarbeets …………………….tons:   27.4                    31,386

Sugarcane ……………………..tons:   35.3                    30,870

Tobacco ……………………..pounds:  2,316                   876,415

:

Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :

Austrian winter peas 3/ ………….cwt:  1,339                       225

Dry edible beans 3/ ……………..cwt:  1,753                    29,206

Dry edible peas 3/ ………………cwt:  1,907                    17,155

Lentils 3/ ……………………..cwt:  1,300                     3,367

Wrinkled seed peas ………………cwt:   (NA)                       618

:

Potatoes and miscellaneous              :

Coffee (Hawaii) ………………pounds:  1,030                     8,100

Hops ………………………..pounds:  1,868                  70,995.9

Peppermint oil ……………….pounds:     90                     5,692

Potatoes, all …………………..cwt:    426                   446,693

Spring ……………………….cwt:    318                    22,608

Summer ……………………….cwt:    322                    15,756

Fall …………………………cwt:    439                   408,329

Spearmint oil ………………..pounds:    114                     2,784

Sweet potatoes ………………….cwt:    219                    29,584

Taro (Hawaii) ………………..pounds:   (NA)                     3,240

—————————————————————————-
———–
(NA) Not available.

(X)  Not applicable.

1/   Area planted for all purposes.

2/   Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.

3/   Yield in pounds.

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
—————————————————————————-
—-
:     Area planted      :    Area harvested

Crop
:—————————–——————
:   2014    :   2015    :   2014    :   2015

—————————————————————————-
—-
:                   hectares

:

Grains and hay                  :

Barley …………………….: 1,203,950                 988,660

Corn for grain 1/ …………..:36,663,700              33,644,310

Corn for silage …………….:      (NA)               2,578,280

Hay, all 2/ ………………..:      (NA)              23,104,560

Alfalfa ………………….:      (NA)               7,464,510

All other ………………..:      (NA)              15,640,050

Oats ………………………: 1,101,970                 416,430

Proso millet ……………….:   204,370                 174,020

Rice ………………………: 1,189,380               1,181,290

Rye ……………………….:   580,330                 104,410

Sorghum for grain 1/ ………..: 2,888,680               2,590,420

Sorghum for silage ………….:      (NA)                 127,480

Wheat, all 2/ ………………:22,995,300              18,769,930

Winter …………………..:17,158,450  16,370,520  13,073,110

Durum ……………………:   565,760                 541,070

Other spring ……………..: 5,271,090               5,155,750

:

Oilseeds                        :

Canola …………………….:   693,640                 629,580

Cottonseed …………………:       (X)                     (X)

Flaxseed …………………..:   125,860                 122,220

Mustard seed ……………….:    13,600                  12,630

Peanuts ……………………:   547,950                 536,210

Rapeseed …………………..:       890                     850

Safflower ………………….:    73,450                  68,880

Soybeans for beans ………….:33,872,960              33,613,960

Sunflower ………………….:   631,640                 610,110

:

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:

Cotton, all 2/ ……………..: 4,466,560               3,928,490

Upland …………………..: 4,388,860               3,851,840

American Pima …………….:    77,700                  76,650

Sugarbeets …………………:   470,090                 464,260

Sugarcane ………………….:      (NA)                 353,740

Tobacco ……………………:      (NA)                 153,120

:

Dry beans, peas, and lentils    :

Austrian winter peas ………..:     9,710                   6,800

Dry edible beans ……………:   695,620                 674,090

Dry edible peas …………….:   378,390                 364,020

Lentils ……………………:   113,720                 104,810

Wrinkled seed peas ………….:      (NA)                    (NA)

:

Potatoes and miscellaneous      :

Coffee (Hawaii) …………….:      (NA)                   3,200

Hops ………………………:      (NA)                  15,380

Peppermint oil ……………..:      (NA)                  25,540

Potatoes, all 2/ ……………:   429,420                 424,720

Spring …………………..:    29,870                  28,770

Summer …………………..:    20,400                  19,790

Fall …………………….:   379,150                 376,160

Spearmint oil ………………:      (NA)                   9,870

Sweet potatoes ……………..:    55,560                  54,710

Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ……………:      (NA)                     150

—————————————————————————-
—-
See footnote(s) at end of table.
–continued

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units –
United States: 2014 and 2015 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year.
Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
—————————————————————————-
—-
:   Yield per hectare   :      Production

Crop
:—————————–——————
:   2014    :   2015    :   2014    :   2015

—————————————————————————-
—-
:                  metric tons

:

Grains and hay                  :

Barley …………………….:    3.89                  3,849,230

Corn for grain ……………..:   10.73                361,091,140

Corn for silage …………….:   45.05                116,163,190

Hay, all 2/ ………………..:    5.49                126,822,610

Alfalfa ………………….:    7.47                 55,742,870

All other ………………..:    4.54                 71,079,740

Oats ………………………:    2.43                  1,011,460

Proso millet ……………….:    1.76                    305,790

Rice ………………………:    8.49                 10,025,980

Rye ……………………….:    1.75                    182,610

Sorghum for grain …………..:    4.24                 10,987,910

Sorghum for silage ………….:   29.34                  3,740,320

Wheat, all 2/ ………………:    2.94                 55,129,190

Winter …………………..:    2.87                 37,490,110

Durum ……………………:    2.67                  1,444,790

Other spring ……………..:    3.14                 16,194,280

:

Oilseeds                        :

Canola …………………….:    1.81                  1,138,970

Cottonseed …………………:     (X)                  4,820,780

Flaxseed …………………..:    1.32                    161,750

Mustard seed ……………….:    1.04                     13,160

Peanuts ……………………:    4.41                  2,363,260

Rapeseed …………………..:    1.38                      1,170

Safflower ………………….:    1.37                     94,640

Soybeans for beans ………….:    3.21                108,013,660

Sunflower ………………….:    1.65                  1,004,630

:

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:

Cotton, all 2/ ……………..:    0.89                  3,501,880

Upland …………………..:    0.88                  3,373,860

American Pima …………….:    1.67                    128,020

Sugarbeets …………………:   61.33                 28,472,900

Sugarcane ………………….:   79.17                 28,004,790

Tobacco ……………………:    2.60                    397,540

:

Dry beans, peas, and lentils    :

Austrian winter peas ………..:    1.50                     10,180

Dry edible beans ……………:    1.97                  1,324,760

Dry edible peas …………….:    2.14                    778,140

Lentils ……………………:    1.46                    152,720

Wrinkled seed peas ………….:    (NA)                     28,030

:

Potatoes and miscellaneous      :

Coffee (Hawaii) …………….:    1.15                      3,670

Hops ………………………:    2.09                     32,200

Peppermint oil ……………..:    0.10                      2,580

Potatoes, all 2/ ……………:   47.71                 20,261,650

Spring …………………..:   35.64                  1,025,480

Summer …………………..:   36.11                    714,680

Fall …………………….:   49.24                 18,521,490

Spearmint oil ………………:    0.13                      1,260

Sweet potatoes ……………..:   24.53                  1,341,910

Taro (Hawaii) ………………:    (NA)                      1,470

—————————————————————————-
—-
(NA) Not available.

(X)  Not applicable.

1/   Area planted for all purposes.

2/   Total may not add due to rounding.

3/   Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year,
except citrus which is for the 2014-2015 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
—————————————————————————-

:            Production

Crop
:—————————–——
:      2014       :      2015

—————————————————————————-

:               1,000

:

Citrus 1/                                  :

Grapefruit ……………………….tons:        1,053           1,038

Lemons …………………………..tons:          832             888

Oranges ………………………….tons:        6,783           6,721

Tangelos (Florida) ………………..tons:           40              32

Tangerines and mandarins …………..tons:          726             748

:

Noncitrus                                  :

Apples ………………….. 1,000 pounds:     11,251.2

Apricots …………………………tons:         64.1

Bananas (Hawaii) ………………..pounds:

Grapes …………………………..tons:      7,769.6

Olives (California) ……………….tons:         82.3

Papayas (Hawaii) ………………..pounds:

Peaches ………………………….tons:        846.6

Pears ……………………………tons:        808.2

Prunes, dried (California) …………tons:         95.0

Prunes and plums (excludes California) tons:         14.8

:

Nuts and miscellaneous                     :

Almonds, shelled (California) …….pounds:    1,870,000

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ……….tons:         36.0

Pecans, in-shell ………………..pounds:      265,370

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ……..tons:        565.0

Maple syrup ……………………gallons:        3,167

—————————————————————————-

1/ Production years are 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2014 and 2015
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2015 crop
year,
except citrus which is for the 2014-2015 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
—————————————————————————-

:            Production

Crop
:—————————–——
:      2014       :      2015

—————————————————————————-

:            metric tons

:

Citrus 1/                                  :

Grapefruit …………………………..:      955,270           941,660

Lemons ………………………………:      754,780           805,580

Oranges ……………………………..:    6,153,430         6,097,190

Tangelos (Florida) ……………………:       36,290            29,030

Tangerines and mandarins ………………:      658,620           678,570

:

Noncitrus                                  :

Apples ………………………………:    5,103,460

Apricots …………………………….:       58,180

Bananas (Hawaii) ……………………..:

Grapes ………………………………:    7,048,490

Olives (California) …………………..:       74,660

Papayas (Hawaii) ……………………..:

Peaches ……………………………..:      768,040

Pears ……………………………….:      733,200

Prunes, dried (California) …………….:       86,180

Prunes and plums (excludes California) ….:       13,430

:

Nuts and miscellaneous                     :

Almonds, shelled (California) ………….:      848,220

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) …………..:       32,660

Pecans, in-shell ……………………..:      120,370

Walnuts, in-shell (California) …………:      512,560

Maple syrup ………………………….:       15,830

—————————————————————————-

1/ Production years are 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

January Weather Summary

Mid-winter warmth dominated the western United States, accompanied in most
areas by unfavorably dry conditions. California’s spell without meaningful
precipitation stretched to 6 weeks by the end of January, increasing the
likelihood that drought will continue through a fourth consecutive growing
season. Among the most serious drought-related issues in California was the
lack of snowpack in key watershed areas, including the Sierra Nevada. The
snowpack concerns also extended northward into the Cascades, where
season-to-date precipitation has been adequate but persistent warmth has
resulted in melting of existing snow or precipitation falling as rain.

Farther east, beneficial precipitation fell across much of the Nation’s
mid-section, including the High Plains. Some of the heaviest precipitation
arrived at month’s end, when a developing storm moved from the southern
Rockies into the Midwest. Despite the January moisture, the Statewide
portion
of the winter wheat rated in good to excellent condition decreased by 7 to
15 percentage points between November 23 and February 1 in each of the
Plains’ seven major production States from Montana to Texas. By month’s end,

wheat rated in the good to excellent categories ranged from 38 percent in
Colorado to 61 percent in Nebraska.

Meanwhile, precipitation events were frequent but generally light across the

Midwest, South, and East. Notable exceptions included a late-January
blizzard
along the northern Atlantic Coast and a snow storm that began to unfold at
month’s end across the Midwest. Across the southernmost Corn Belt, a
mid-month cold snap without the benefit of a protective snow cover
threatened
the poorly established soft red winter wheat crop. Elsewhere, areas being
watched due to developing dryness included the mid-South and the southern
tip
of Florida.

January Agricultural Summary

Precipitation levels for the month were generally within 3 inches of normal
across the Nation. The major exception to this trend occurred in northern
California and the Pacific coast of Oregon where recorded precipitation
levels in some areas were more than 6 inches below normal. Despite a wet
December, dry weather on the Pacific coast has caused drought conditions to
continue in the area. Temperatures were above average for the month from the

northern Great Plains across the western United States with areas in the
central Rocky Mountains and the Great Basin recording temperatures more than

8°F above normal. Temperatures were cooler from the southern Great Plains
to
the Atlantic coast with areas bordering the Great Lakes and the Texas Gulf
Coast recording average temperatures more than 4°F below normal.

Winter wheat condition declined over the previous month in several wheat
producing States. Kansas winter wheat condition was rated at 46 percent in
the good to excellent categories as of February 1, down 3 percentage points
from the beginning of January. Colorado winter wheat condition dropped
24 percentage points from the beginning of the month, with 46 percent rated
in good to excellent condition on February 1. Montana winter wheat was rated

58 percent good to excellent at the end of the month, down 7 percentage
points from January 4. Lack of protective snow cover across the Great Plains

is generally attributed to the condition declines.

In Arizona, alfalfa conditions were mostly fair to excellent, depending on
location. Harvesting occurred on two-thirds of the alfalfa acreage across
the
State. Sheep continue to graze on various alfalfa fields in many areas.
Precipitation throughout the month helped maintain soil moisture levels in
range and pasture. Rangeland conditions vary widely from very poor to good,
depending on location.

Early month precipitation saturated some fields and limited access for
California producers. Wheat, oats, and other winter forage grew well
throughout the month but more rain is needed as the crops develop. Pruning
and shredding in tree fruit and grape vineyards proceeded throughout the
month. Navel oranges, mandarins, lemons, grapefruit, and limes were
harvested, packed, and exported during January. The month began with pruning

and shredding in almond orchards and shifted to walnut and pistachio
orchards
as the month proceeded. Sporadic rain improved some rangeland conditions but

beef cattle had to be fed with supplements with rangeland in need of more
rain for growth. More rain is necessary to help with the germination and
development of foothill grasses and forbs. Bee hives started to be
positioned
in preparation for the almond pollination.

Cool conditions, including some reports of snow, have impacted the
development of winter wheat and oats across Texas. Spring wheat and oats
seedings neared completion by the end of the month in South Texas. Cotton
harvest in the Northern High and Low Plains was near completion. Many
producers are beginning preparations for 2015 corn and cotton planting.
Vegetable processing and harvest continued. Livestock were generally in fair

to good condition across the State as supplemental feeding continued.

Fieldwork and soil preparation for spring plantings occurred as field
conditions allowed in the Panhandle of Florida. Sugarcane harvest took place

in Glades and Hendry counties throughout the month. Pasture conditions
started the month fair to good but improved with increased rainfall as
January proceeded. Livestock producers provided supplemental feed as
necessary. Citrus processing plants were up and running at full capacity
throughout the month. Navel orange harvest slowed throughout the month as
the
season completed. Other citrus harvested included Hamlin and Pineapple
oranges, colored and white grapefruit and honey tangerines. Grove activity
included running irrigation, fertilizing, and some spraying.

Crop Comments

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons),
down 20 percent from last season’s final utilization and down 13 percent
from
last month’s forecast. The Row Count Survey conducted February 2-3 showed
69 percent of the rows were harvested.

Grapefruit: The 2014-2015 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at
1.04 million tons, down 1 percent from last season’s final utilization but
unchanged from last month’s forecast. In Florida, current fruit size of
white
and colored grapefruit is smaller than average. Also in Florida, the current

drop rate for white is below last season’s record high level; however it is
the third highest on record. Droppage for the colored grapefruit in Florida
is expected to be a new record high this season at harvest. California and
Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from January.

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is
forecast at 748,000 tons, up 3 percent from last season’s final utilization
but unchanged from the January forecast. In Florida, harvest of early season

varieties (Fallglo and Sunburst) is relatively complete for the season.
Arizona and California, the tangerines and mandarins production forecast are

carried forward from January.

Florida citrus: Across the citrus growing region, reported rainfall amounts
were slightly less than average. Most citrus growing counties recorded two
inches of rainfall or less during the month; while some East Coast counties
and northern counties had slightly more rainfall. Daily high temperatures
were mostly in the 70s, while minimum temperatures were usually in the 40s.
All citrus producing areas were void of abnormally dry or drought conditions

throughout the month.

Processing plants were up and running at full capacity, taking both
eliminations and field run fruit. Early-mid orange varieties harvested for
processing included both Hamlin and Pineapple oranges. Some plants closed
over the weekends in order to eliminate the gap between the early-mid and
late variety oranges. Early variety fruit harvested for the fresh market
included Navel oranges, Sunburst tangerines, white and colored grapefruit,
and tangelos.

Grove activity included spraying, irrigation, and mowing in preparation for
harvest. Citrus growers continued field practices to combat greening. Field
workers across the citrus region observed patchy pinhead bloom on early
oranges.

California citrus: The color in navel oranges has been reported to be
improving and exports were on the rise. Mandarin oranges, Navel oranges,
Cara
Cara, grapefruits, finger limes, and lemons continued to be packed. Growers
treated citrus groves for fungal diseases and the Fuller Rose Beetle to
maintain good quality and meet export requirements.

California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Pruning and shredding were the month’s

main reported activities, as well as application of pre-emergence herbicides

on nut trees, and fumigating for replanting. The export of stored table
grapes had mostly ended. Kiwifruit continued to be packed and exported for
domestic and foreign markets. Avocados were harvested. Persimmons continued
to be harvested and sold at roadside stands. Minimal damage from mid-month
cold temperatures was reported in a few isolated spots. The sale of stored
nuts continued to be dominated by domestic markets.
Some early bud-swell was reported in almond orchards and walnuts were
thinned. Weed spraying picked up in the vineyards and orchards late in the
month. Copper sprays were applied on cherry orchards.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2014 is forecast at

30.9 million tons, of which 29.3 million tons was utilized for sugar and
1.55 million tons for seed. Total production is up slightly from both last
month and the previous year. Producers intend to harvest 874,100 acres for
sugar and seed during the 2014 crop year, unchanged from the previous
forecast. Expected yield for sugar and seed is forecast at 35.3 tons per
acre, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up 1.5 tons per acre from
the
previous season. Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas sugarcane estimates were
carried forward from January.

Statistical Methodology

Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1
forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 69 percent of the
United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start
of
the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined

with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From
mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In
August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage
surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used
to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct
grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April,
and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September
for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with
historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and
Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their
analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board
(ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published

February 1 forecast.

Revision policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A
new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-
season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the
end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders,
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local
utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1

production forecasts, the “Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical measure
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1

production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the

final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year’s
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The “Root Mean Square Error” for the February 1 orange production forecast
is
4.0 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production years
(one
freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the “Root Mean Square Error” is
also 4.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current
orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by

more than 4.0 percent, regardless of exclusions. Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
6.8 percent, or 6.9 percent excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates
during
the past 20 years have averaged 325,000 tons (322,000 tons excluding
abnormal
seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless of exclusions.

The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8
times
and above 12 times (below 8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal
seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecast this
year is likely to understate or overstate final production.

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the
National Agricultural Statistics
Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent
to [email protected]

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops
Branch……………………………………………… (202) 720-2127

Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops
Section…………………..………………. (202) 720-2127
Brent Chittenden – Oats, Rye,
Wheat…………………….………………… (202) 720-8068
Angie Considine – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings,
Sorghum…………………..…….. (202) 720-5944
Tony Dahlman – Crop Weather,
Barley………………………………………. (202) 720-7621
Chris Hawthorn – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso
Millet……………………………… (202) 720-9526
James Johanson – County Estimates,
Hay……………………………………. (202) 690-8533
Bianca Pruneda – Peanuts,
Rice……………………..……………………. (202) 720-7688
Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other
Oilseeds………………….……. (202) 720-7369

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops
Section…………… (202) 720-2127
Vincent Davis – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries,
Cherries.. (202) 720-2157
Fleming Gibson – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical
Fruits………… (202) 720-5412
Greg Lemmons – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes
………………. (202) 720-4285
Dave Losh –
Hops……………………..………………………………… (360)
709-2400
Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,
Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans
………………. (202) 720-3250
Daphne Schauber – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts
…………….. (202) 720-4215
Chris Singh – Apples, Apricots, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco
…………………….. (202) 720-4288

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ways:

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web
site: http://www.nass.usda.gov

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For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural

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[email protected].

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[email protected].

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