By: Mike McGinnis
DES MOINES, Iowa — The U.S. farmers will have a bigger corn crop than the trade expected, according to the USDA.
On Thursday, the USDA released its Crop Production and September Supply/Demand Reports.
As a result, the soybean market had a sharp rally, pulling up corn and wheat.
At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 7 1/2¢ higher at $3.67 1/4. March corn futures finished 7 1/2¢ higher at $3.79 3/4.
Nov. soybean futures closed 29¢ higher at $8.95 3/4. Jan. soybean futures closed 28 1/2¢ higher at $9.09.
Dec. wheat futures closed 6 1/4¢ higher at $4.83 1/2.
December soymeal futures finished $6.60 per short ton higher at $301.30. December soy oil futures closed $0.33 higher at 29.16¢ per pound
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.66 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 148 points higher.
U.S. PRODUCTION
For corn, the USDA pegged this year’s production at 13.799 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 13.5 billion and its August estimate of 13.9 billion bushels.
On yield, the USDA estimated the corn crop averaging 168.2 bushels per acre vs. the avg. trade estimate of 166.7 bu./acre and the government’s August estimate of 169.5.
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean output at 3.63 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 3.57 billion bushels and its August estimate of 3.68 billion.
Also, the USDA sees the U.S. crop averaging 47.9 bu./acre vs. the avg. trade estimate of 47.2 bu./acre and its August estimate of 48.5.
PLANTED, HARVESTED ACREAGE
USDA keeps the U.S. corn, soybean planted and harvested acreage unchanged. For U.S. corn, planted acreage estimates remain at 90.0 million and the USDA’s harvested acreage is still 82.0 million vs. it August estimate.
For soybeans, the U.S. planted acreage is pegged at 76.7 million, equal to its August report. Also, U.S. soybean harvested acreage was left unchanged at 75.9 million.
U.S. ENDING STOCKS 2018/19
For old crop corn stocks, the USDA pegged U.S. stockpiles at 2.44 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 2.39 billion bushels and the USDA’s August estimate of 2.36 billion.
For soybeans, U.S. ending stocks are estimated at 1.00 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 1.05 billion bushels and the USDA’s August estimate of 1.07 billion bushels.
U.S. ENDING STOCKS 2019/20
Looking ahead to the end of the next marketing year, the USDA pegged U.S. corn stocks at 2.19 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 1.93 billion bushels and the August estimate of 2.18 billion.
For soybeans, U.S. new-crop ending stocks are pegged at 640 million bushels vs. the trade’s avg. estimate of 660 million and the USDA’s August estimate of 755 million bushels.
TRADE REACTION
Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that today’s USDA/WASDE numbers, themselves, are maybe a little bearish, when compared to expectations.
“But, they are not price-negative to the point that we are never going to have an uptick again. I think yields will eventually come down more, as they do not jive with what I am hearing from the country. Beans maybe a lot more, corn should come down more and maybe into the lower 160’s. The soybean ending stocks are down into a realistic area, corn ending stocks disappointing.
Scoville added, “There was a positive reaction to the reports and I am hoping for a strong close. We have already factored in these kinds of numbers from the August reports. So now, we can rally a bit. Might still go lower at harvest but for now I think a short term pop is in order if not more,” Scoville says.
