Cattle on feed

0
303

ISSN: 1948-9080

Released September 19, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.8 million head on
September 1, 2014. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2013.

Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.72 million, 3 percent below
2013. Net placements were 1.65 million head. During August, placements of
cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 410,000, 600-699 pounds
were 280,000, 700-799 pounds were 395,000, and 800 pounds and greater were
635,000. For the month of August placements are the lowest since the series
began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.69 million, 10 percent
below 2013. August marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996.

Other disappearance totaled 66,000 during August, 32 percent above 2013.

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots – United States: September 1, 2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
——-
:          Number           :
Percent of
Item                  :—————————:

:    2013     :    2014
:previous year
—————————————————————————-
——-
:   —- 1,000 head —-
percent
:

On feed August 1 …………………..:   10,025         9,837
98
Placed on feed during August ………..:    1,772         1,720
97
Fed cattle marketed during August ……:    1,871         1,692
90
Other disappearance during August ……:       50            66
132
On feed September 1 ………………..:    9,876         9,799
99
—————————————————————————-
——-

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots – United States: August 1, 2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
——-
:          Number           :
Percent of
Item                  :—————————:

:    2013     :    2014
:previous year
—————————————————————————-
——-
:   —- 1,000 head —-
percent
:

On feed July 1 …………………….:   10,375        10,127
98
Placed on feed during July ………….:    1,684         1,560
93
Fed cattle marketed during July ……..:    1,970         1,787
91
Other disappearance during July ……..:       64            63
98
On feed August 1 …………………..:   10,025         9,837
98
—————————————————————————-
——-

Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and
United States:
2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
———————–
:                 :                 :
September 1, 2014
:                 :
:—————————–—————
State      :September 1, 2013: August 1, 2014  :              :
Percent of  :  Percent of
:                 :                 :    Number
:previous year :previous month
—————————————————————————-
———————–
:      ————– 1,000 head ————-
—– percent —-
:

Arizona ……….:        266               262             257
97             98
California …….:        505               420             415
82             99
Colorado ………:        830               810             800
96             99
Idaho …………:        190               185             180
95             97
Iowa ………….:        550               600             580
105             97
Kansas ………..:      1,980             1,900           1,950
98            103
Minnesota ……..:        101               116             113
112             97
Nebraska ………:      2,090             2,160           2,130
102             99
Oklahoma ………:        280               240             245
88            102
South Dakota …..:        170               190             185
109             97
Texas …………:      2,430             2,470           2,450
101             99
Washington …….:        184               189             199
108            105
:

Other States …..:        300               295             295
98            100
:

United States ….:      9,876             9,837           9,799
99            100
—————————————————————————-
———————–

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month –
States and United States: 2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:              :              :             During August
2014
:    During    :    During
:—————————–—————
State      : August 2013  :  July 2014   :              :  Percent of
:  Percent of
:              :              :    Number    :previous
year :previous month
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:    ———— 1,000 head ———–           —–
percent —-
:

Arizona ……….:       23             23             21            91
91
California …….:       55             39             40            73
103
Colorado ………:      145             90            145           100
161
Idaho …………:       52             37             33            63
89
Iowa ………….:       66             56             63            95
113
Kansas ………..:      380            400            410           108
103
Minnesota ……..:       13             10             15           115
150
Nebraska ………:      440            375            425            97
113
Oklahoma ………:       47             32             50           106
156
South Dakota …..:       28             20             30           107
150
Texas …………:      440            410            410            93
100
Washington …….:       43             37             44           102
119
:

Other States …..:       40             31             34            85
110
:

United States ….:    1,772          1,560          1,720            97
110
—————————————————————————-
—————–

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots
by Month – States and United States: 2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
————
:                            During August

:—————————–—————————————-
State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :
Total

:—————————–—————————————-
: 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 :
2013 : 2014
—————————————————————————-
————
:                             1,000 head

:

Colorado ………:  25     30     20     15     45     35     55     65
145    145
Kansas ………..:  65     75     80     80    115    110    120    145
380    410
Nebraska ………:  55     55     65     50    100     95    220    225
440    425
Texas …………: 175    170    115     95     95     85     55     60
440    410
:

Other States …..:  85     80     47     40     70     70    165    140
367    330
:

United States ….: 405    410    327    280    425    395    615    635
1,772  1,720

:—————————–—————————————-
:                             During July

:—————————–—————————————-
State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :
Total

:—————————–—————————————-
: 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 :
2013 : 2014

:—————————–—————————————-
:                             1,000 head

:

Colorado ………:  30     25     20     15     30     20     40     30
120     90
Kansas ………..:  60     80     75     70    140    110    150    140
425    400
Nebraska ………:  45     55     55     50     90     85    180    185
370    375
Texas …………: 165    185     75     85    125     85     85     55
450    410
:

Other States …..:  90     80     45     40     60     55    124    110
319    285
:

United States ….: 390    425    270    260    445    355    579    520
1,684  1,560
—————————————————————————-
————

Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and
United States:
2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:              :              :             During August
2014
:    During    :    During
:—————————–—————
State      : August 2013  :  July 2014   :              :  Percent of
:  Percent of
:              :              :    Number    :previous
year :previous month
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:    ———— 1,000 head ———–           —–
percent —-
:

Arizona ……….:       18             26             25           139
96
California …….:       60             47             40            67
85
Colorado ………:      180            145            150            83
103
Idaho …………:       46             41             37            80
90
Iowa ………….:       73             74             80           110
108
Kansas ………..:      390            390            345            88
88
Minnesota ……..:       20             15             17            85
113
Nebraska ………:      420            465            440           105
95
Oklahoma ………:       51             46             44            86
96
South Dakota …..:       37             39             34            92
87
Texas …………:      490            415            415            85
100
Washington …….:       47             40             33            70
83
:

Other States …..:       39             44             32            82
73
:

United States ….:    1,871          1,787          1,692            90
95
—————————————————————————-
—————–

Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and United
States:
2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:              :              :             During August
2014
:    During    :    During
:—————————–—————
State      : August 2013  :  July 2014   :              :  Percent of
:  Percent of
:              :              :    Number    :previous
year :previous month
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:      ———- 1,000 head ———-            —–
percent —-
:

Arizona ……….:       1              7              1            100
14
California …….:       5              7              5            100
71
Colorado ………:       5              5              5            100
100
Idaho …………:       1              1              1            100
100
Iowa ………….:       3              2              3            100
150
Kansas ………..:      10             10             15            150
150
Minnesota ……..:       1              1              1            100
100
Nebraska ………:      10             10             15            150
150
Oklahoma ………:       1              1              1            100
100
South Dakota …..:       1              1              1            100
100
Texas …………:      10             15             15            150
100
Washington …….:       1              1              1            100
100
:

Other States …..:       1              2              2            200
100
:

United States ….:      50             63             66            132
105
—————————————————————————-
—————–

Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or
protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a
carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being
“backgrounded only” for later sale as feeders or later placement in another
feedlot.

Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a
carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter
market.

Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market.

Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture,
and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.

Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United
States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for
cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from
16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent
of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.
Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States.
Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the “Other
States” estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and
Wyoming. The “Other States” category represents all cattle on feed with a
capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States.

Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the
Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis
submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed
for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous
month when establishing the current estimates.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month
to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to
revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In
February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of
feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject
to revisions.
The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand
data, and any other data that may have been received after the original
estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the
Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that
date and estimates become final.

Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every
State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject
to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling
errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be
measured directly.
They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection
process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency
and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report,
the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected items in the table on the
following page. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and
latest estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for cattle on feed inventory
estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances
are
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current
estimate of 9.8 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of
10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent.

The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of
differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using
estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first
estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged
9,000 head, ranging from 0 to 34,000 head. During this period the initial
estimate has been above the latest estimate 8 times and has been below the
latest estimate
9 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to
understate or overstate final inventory.

Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past
24 months]
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-
:  Root mean   :  90 percent  :
Difference between first and latest estimate
: square error :  confidence  :         :
:         :               :
:              :    level
:—————————–——————————
Item             :              :              :         :
:         :            Months
:              :              :         :
:         :—————————–
:              :              : Average
:Smallest : Largest : Below latest  : Above latest
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-
:   percent        percent        ——–
1,000 ——-            —– number —-
:

Number on feed ……………:     0.1            0.2           9         0
34            9               8
:

Placements ……………….:     1.7            2.9          18         0
88            4              14
:

Marketings ……………….:     1.5            2.5          17         0
67            0              13
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the
National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional
information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected].

Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ……….. (202) 720-3570

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ……….. (202) 690-2424
Travis Averill – Cattle, Cattle on Feed …… (202) 720-3040
Doug Bounds – Hogs and Pigs ……………… (202) 720-3106
Donnie Fike – Dairy Products …………….. (202) 690-3236
Tiffany Hora – Livestock Slaughter ……….. (515) 284-4340
Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
Evan Schulz – Sheep and Goats…………….. (202) 720-6147

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