Cattle on feed up two percent

0
344
ISSN: 1948-9080

Released July 24, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent
	
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for 
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.2 million head on 
July 1, 2015. The inventory was 2 percent above July 1, 2014. The inventory 
included 6.91 million steers and steer calves, up 7 percent from the previous 
year. This group accounted for 67 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and 
heifer calves accounted for 3.33 million head, down 7 percent from 2014. July 
1, 2015 heifers and heifer calves inventory is the lowest percent of total 
July inventory since the series began in 1996.

Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.48 million, 1 percent above 
2014. Net placements were 1.41 million head. During June, placements of 
cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 350,000, 600-699 pounds 
were 250,000, 700-799 pounds were 336,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 
545,000.

Marketings of fed cattle during June totaled 1.75 million, 5 percent below 
2014. Marketings are the lowest for June since the series began in 1996.

Other disappearance totaled 69,000 during June, 8 percent below 2014.

United States All Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for 
all feedlots totaled 12.1 million head on July 1, 2015. The inventory was up 
2 percent from the July 1, 2014 total of 11.9 million head. Cattle on feed in 
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 85 percent of the 
total cattle on feed on July 1, 2015, up slightly from the previous year.

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: July 1, 2014 and 2015
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :          Number           :  Percent of  
                  Item                  :---------------------------:              
                                        :    2014     :    2015     :previous year 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :   ---- 1,000 head ----        percent    
                                        :                                          
On feed June 1 .........................:   10,497        10,571          101      
Placed on feed during June .............:    1,468         1,481          101      
Fed cattle marketed during June ........:    1,847         1,747           95      
Other disappearance during June ........:       75            69           92      
On feed July 1 .........................:   10,043        10,236          102      
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: June 1, 2014 and 2015
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :          Number           :  Percent of  
                  Item                  :---------------------------:              
                                        :    2014     :    2015     :previous year 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :   ---- 1,000 head ----        percent    
                                        :                                          
On feed May 1 ..........................:   10,554        10,640          101      
Placed on feed during May ..............:    1,909         1,719           90      
Fed cattle marketed during May .........:    1,865         1,711           92      
Other disappearance during May .........:      101            77           76      
On feed June 1 .........................:   10,497        10,571          101      
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States:
July 1, 2014 and 2015
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :          Number           :  Percent of  
                  Item                  :---------------------------:              
                                        :    2014     :    2015     :previous year 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    ---- 1,000 Head ---        percent    
                                        :                                          
Class on feed July 1                    :                                          
  Steers and steer calves ..............:    6,448         6,909          107      
  Heifers and heifer calves ............:    3,595         3,327           93      
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Number on Feed - United States: July 1, 2014 and 2015
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     :          Number           :  Percent of  
                State                :---------------------------:              
                                     :    2014     :    2015     :     2014     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     :   ---- 1,000 Head ----        percent    
                                     :                                          
United States .......................:   11,900        12,100          102      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States:
2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                 :                 :                July 1, 2015                
                  :                 :                 :--------------------------------------------
       State      :  July 1, 2014   :  June 1, 2015   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :                 :                 :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :     --------------- 1,000 head --------------          ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                                
Arizona ..........:        272               238              240           88            101      
California .......:        435               460              460          106            100      
Colorado .........:        850               890              830           98             93      
Idaho ............:        180               235              225          125             96      
Iowa .............:        620               650              640          103             98      
Kansas ...........:      1,900             2,020            1,940          102             96      
Minnesota ........:        121               143              141          117             99      
Nebraska .........:      2,240             2,400            2,280          102             95      
Oklahoma .........:        255               275              260          102             95      
South Dakota .....:        195               230              230          118            100      
Texas ............:      2,490             2,500            2,480          100             99      
Washington .......:        175               230              215          123             93      
                  :                                                                                
Other States .....:        310               300              295           95             98      
                  :                                                                                
United States ....:     10,043            10,571           10,236          102             97      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and
United States: 2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :              :              :              During June 2015              
                  :    During    :    During    :--------------------------------------------
       State      :  June 2014   :   May 2015   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :    ------------ 1,000 head -----------           ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                          
Arizona ..........:       20             25             28           140            112      
California .......:       45             54             45           100             83      
Colorado .........:       95            140             80            84             57      
Idaho ............:       26             30             31           119            103      
Iowa .............:       54             65             67           124            103      
Kansas ...........:      315            345            335           106             97      
Minnesota ........:       15             14             17           113            121      
Nebraska .........:      385            390            375            97             96      
Oklahoma .........:       37             49             38           103             78      
South Dakota .....:       31             29             28            90             97      
Texas ............:      370            495            375           101             76      
Washington .......:       40             45             30            75             67      
                  :                                                                          
Other States .....:       35             38             32            91             84      
                  :                                                                          
United States ....:    1,468          1,719          1,481           101             86      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month -
States and United States: 2014 and 2015
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                             During June                             
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
       State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :    Total    
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                             1,000 head                              
                  :                                                                     
Colorado .........:  30     20     15     15     20     15     30     30      95     80 
Kansas ...........:  65     60     60     65     80     95    110    115     315    335 
Nebraska .........:  55     50     50     50     90     75    190    200     385    375 
Texas ............: 155    125     75     80     85     95     55     75     370    375 
                  :                                                                     
Other States .....: 100     95     45     40     53     56    105    125     303    316 
                  :                                                                     
United States ....: 405    350    245    250    328    336    490    545   1,468  1,481 

                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                             During May                              
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
       State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :    Total    
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 
                  :---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                             1,000 head                              
                  :                                                                     
Colorado .........:  35     30     20     20     35     35     50     55     140    140 
Kansas ...........:  80     50     75     55    120     90    160    150     435    345 
Nebraska .........:  55     45     55     55     95     75    220    215     425    390 
Texas ............: 180    145    100     90    160    125    140    135     580    495 
                  :                                                                     
Other States .....:  85     90     40     40     64     64    140    155     329    349 
                  :                                                                     
United States ....: 435    360    290    260    474    389    710    710   1,909  1,719 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States:
2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :              :              :              During June 2015              
                  :    During    :    During    :--------------------------------------------
       State      :  June 2014   :   May 2015   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :    ------------ 1,000 head -----------           ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                          
Arizona ..........:       22             26             25           114             96      
California .......:       40             39             40           100            103      
Colorado .........:      150            130            125            83             96      
Idaho ............:       39             29             40           103            138      
Iowa .............:       70             74             76           109            103      
Kansas ...........:      420            375            400            95            107      
Minnesota ........:       15             15             18           120            120      
Nebraska .........:      500            470            480            96            102      
Oklahoma .........:       46             42             52           113            124      
South Dakota .....:       45             37             26            58             70      
Texas ............:      420            395            385            92             97      
Washington .......:       44             44             44           100            100      
                  :                                                                          
Other States .....:       36             35             36           100            103      
                  :                                                                          
United States ....:    1,847          1,711          1,747            95            102      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States:
2014 and 2015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :              :              :              During June 2015              
                  :    During    :    During    :--------------------------------------------
       State      :  June 2014   :   May 2015   :              :  Percent of  :  Percent of  
                  :              :              :    Number    :previous year :previous month
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :      ---------- 1,000 head ----------            ----- percent ----      
                  :                                                                          
Arizona ..........:       1              1              1            100            100      
California .......:       5              5              5            100            100      
Colorado .........:       5             20             15            300             75      
Idaho ............:       2              1              1             50            100      
Iowa .............:       4              1              1             25            100      
Kansas ...........:      15             10             15            100            150      
Minnesota ........:       1              1              1            100            100      
Nebraska .........:      25             20             15             60             75      
Oklahoma .........:       1              2              1            100             50      
South Dakota .....:       1              2              2            200            100      
Texas ............:      10             10             10            100            100      
Washington .......:       1              1              1            100            100      
                  :                                                                          
Other States .....:       4              3              1             25             33      
                  :                                                                          
United States ....:      75             77             69             92             90      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Quarter - States and United States:
2014 and 2015
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :       Steers and steer calves        :      Heifers and heifer calves       
                    :-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
        State       :   Jul 1,   :   Apr 1,   :   Jul 1,   :   Jul 1,   :   Apr 1,   :   Jul 1,   
                    :    2014    :    2015    :    2015    :    2014    :    2015    :    2015    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                                 1,000 Head                                  
                    :                                                                             
Arizona ............:     268          237          236            4            4            4    
California .........:     390          410          425           45           35           35    
Colorado ...........:     550          610          560          300          280          270    
Idaho ..............:     100          150          150           80           80           75    
Iowa ...............:     430          520          490          190          150          150    
Kansas .............:     970        1,190        1,030          930          920          910    
Minnesota ..........:      95          128          126           26           18           15    
Nebraska ...........:   1,470        1,830        1,570          770          700          710    
Oklahoma ...........:     170          200          190           85           85           70    
South Dakota .......:     115          150          142           80           85           88    
Texas ..............:   1,580        1,680        1,650          910          790          830    
Washington .........:     100          140          135           75           85           80    
                    :                                                                             
Other States .......:     210          210          205          100          110           90    
                    :                                                                             
United States ......:   6,448        7,455        6,909        3,595        3,342        3,327    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage, 
hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to 
produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being 
"backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another 
feedlot.

Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will 
produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the 
slaughter market.

Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter 
market.

Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, 
and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.

Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United 
States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for 
cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 
States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of 
the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. 
Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States. 
Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other 
States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and 
Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a 
capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States.

Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the 
Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis 
submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed 
for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month 
when establishing the current estimates.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to 
month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision 
in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all 
monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and 
annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. 
The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand 
data, and any other data that may have been received after the original 
estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census 
of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and 
estimates become final.

Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every 
State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to 
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors 
such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and 
processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. 
They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection 
process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and 
reasonableness.
 
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, 
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the 
following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based 
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and 
latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory 
estimates over the past 24 months is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current 
estimate of 10.2 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 
10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent.

The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of 
differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using 
estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate 
and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 52,000 head, 
ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has 
been above the latest estimate 18 times and has been below the latest 
estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to 
understate or overstate final inventory. 

Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :  Root mean   :  90 percent  :        Difference between first and latest estimate         
                              : square error :  confidence  :         :         :         :               :               
                              :              :    level     :-------------------------------------------------------------
             Item             :              :              :         :         :         :            Months             
                              :              :              :         :         :         :-------------------------------
                              :              :              : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest  : Above latest  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :   percent        percent        -------- 1,000 -------           ----- number -----       
                              :                                                                                           
Number on feed ...............:     0.6            1.0          52         0        97            4              18       
                              :                                                                                           
Placements ...................:     1.1            1.9          14         0        55           11              11       
                              :                                                                                           
Marketings ...................:     0.6            1.0           5         0        30            0               6       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock 
Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to 
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent 
to [email protected]

Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424
   Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040
   Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240
   Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106
   Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236
   Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
   Vacant - Sheep and Goats ..................... (202) 720-3570

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