Turkey Hatchery

0
446
ISSN: 1949-1964

Released July 16, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

Eggs in Incubators on July 1 Down 4 Percent from Last Year

Turkey eggs in incubators on July 1, 2015, in the United States totaled 
27.5 million, down 4 percent from July 1, 2014. Eggs in incubators were up 
1 percent from the June 1, 2015 total of 27.2 million eggs.  

Poults Hatched During June Down 2 Percent from Last Year

Turkey poults hatched during June 2015, in the United States totaled 
23.2 million, down 2 percent from June 2014. Poults hatched were up 5 percent 
from the May 2015 total of 22.2 million poults.  

Net Poults Placed During June Down 2 Percent from Last Year

The 22.9 million net poults placed during June 2015 in the United States were 
down 2 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. 
Net placements were up 7 percent from the May 2015 total of 21.3 million.

Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2013-2015
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  : Eggs in incubators  :Percent of:   Poults hatched    :Percent of
                  :   first of month    : previous :    entire month     : previous 
       Month      :---------------------:   year   :---------------------:   year   
                  :          :          :          :          :          :          
                  :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :          :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :  --- 1,000 eggs --    percent        1,000 poults      percent  
                  :                                                                 
September ........:  25,524     27,388      107       20,974     22,844      109    
October ..........:  26,466     27,842      105       22,928     23,744      104    
November .........:  26,379     28,004      106       21,308     21,936      103    
December .........:  26,478     28,964      109       22,074     24,660      112    
January ..........:  27,278     29,281      107       23,430     24,023      103    
February .........:  26,909     27,144      101       21,486     21,721      101    
March ............:  26,035     28,250      109       22,380     24,179      108    
April ............:  27,195     28,799      106       22,800     23,261      102    
May ..............:  29,017     26,845       93       24,189     22,161       92    
June .............:  28,918     27,232       94       23,647     23,189       98    
July .............:  28,627     27,480       96       24,405                        
August ...........:  27,759                           23,500                        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2013-2015
[Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period
has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :      Total all      :Percent of:     Cumulative      :Percent of
                  :       breeds        : previous :        total        : previous 
       Month      :---------------------:   year   :---------------------:   year   
                  :          :          :          :          :          :          
                  :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :          :2013-2014 :2014-2015 :          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :     1,000 poults      percent    -- 1,000 poults --    percent  
                  :                                                                 
September ........:  19,624     21,169      108       19,624     21,169      108    
October ..........:  20,908     21,695      104       40,532     42,864      106    
November .........:  20,042     20,379      102       60,574     63,243      104    
December .........:  21,138     22,516      107       81,712     85,759      105    
January ..........:  22,096     22,383      101      103,808    108,142      104    
February .........:  20,889     20,119       96      124,697    128,261      103    
March ............:  21,557     21,885      102      146,254    150,146      103    
April ............:  22,621     21,851       97      168,875    171,997      102    
May ..............:  23,310     21,329       92      192,185    193,326      101    
June .............:  23,452     22,899       98      215,637    216,225      100    
July .............:  24,234                          239,871                        
August ...........:  23,224                          263,095                        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all 
known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS field offices maintain a list of all 
known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their 
lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries are contacted each month. All known turkey 
hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire 
as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to 
respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting (EDR). Those that do not 
respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all 
hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate.

Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive 
the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. 
Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and 
to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated 
based on similar operations or historical data. NASS field offices prepare 
these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic 
trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural 
Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to 
State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates 
are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult 
Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults.

Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 
31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period 
corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be 
available for slaughter during the calendar year.

States reporting turkey hatcheries are: Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho, 
Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, 
New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and 
Wisconsin.

Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected 
data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey 
Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery 
Production - Annual Summary report in April.

Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known 
operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, 
estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes 
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While the affects of these 
errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality 
controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all 
reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the 
"Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. 
The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past 
performance and is computed using the differences between first and final 
estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the 
first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.4 percent. This means 
that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or 
below the current estimate of 27.5 million eggs by more than 1.4 percent. 
Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent.

Reliability of July Turkey Hatchery Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   :  Root mean  : 90 percent  :     Difference between first and latest estimate     
                                   :square error : confidence  :        :        :        :             :             
                                   :             :    level    :------------------------------------------------------
                Item               :             :             :        :        :        :          Months           
                                   :             :             :        :        :        :---------------------------
                                   :             :             :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   :   percent       percent      -------- 1,000 -------        ---- number ----      
                                   :                                                                                  
Eggs in incubators ................:     1.4           2.3        239        5     1,221        19             5      
                                   :                                                                                  
Poults hatched ....................:     0.5           0.9         90        0       211        12            11      
                                   :                                                                                  
Net poult placements ..............:     1.6           2.7        299       11       659         9            15      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National 
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries 
may be sent to [email protected]

Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ..................................... (202) 720-3570

Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section .............. (202) 720-4447
   Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Cold Storage ..................................... (202) 720-4751
   Heidi Gleich - Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ...................... (202) 720-0585
   Michael Klamm - Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ..... (202) 690-3237
   Tom Kruchten - Census of Aquaculture ................................... (202) 690-4870
   Kim Linonis - Layers, Eggs ............................................. (202) 690-8632
   Sammy Neal - Catfish Production, Egg Products, Mink, Trout Production .. (202) 720-3244
   Joshua O'Rear - Honey .................................................. (202) 690-3676

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[email protected]. 
  
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