Texas pecan growers are preparing for the 2025 harvest season with a crop outlook that reflects the state’s diversity in weather and geography, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.

Monte Nesbitt, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension pecan specialist and assistant professor in the Texas A&M Department of Horticultural Sciences, Bryan-College Station, forecast the state’s crop at 32 million pounds, a number that falls near the middle of Texas’ recent production history.

Texas’ all-time high pecan production was 91 million pounds in 1979, while the record low – 5 million pounds – occurred in 1951.

“This year would be considered average — maybe mediocre,” Nesbitt said. “Some regions are looking at decent yields, but weather conditions created challenges for others, and crop losses are expected.”

Weather drives regional differences

Harvest is about to get underway, but Nesbitt said conditions throughout the growing season created clear contrasts around Texas. He said nut quality remains in question. Cooler, wetter weather around the state helped trees recover from years of drought and triple-digit temperatures, but it also created higher pressure from pecan scab, a fungal disease that can cause fruit loss and reduce nut quality.

In East Texas, abundant rainfall and more moderate summer temperatures helped tree health but fueled pecan scab. He said pecan yield and quality losses to the disease could be significant in the region, especially for backyard and smaller commercial producers.

“Even with best management practices, including fungicide applications, we’ve seen crop injury that would suggest the possibility of quality losses for East Texas,” he said. “Scab is the No. 1 biological threat to pecans, and it was back in full force this year.”

Central Texas pecan trees in some areas encountered spring frost, but the region overall saw better rainfall and a departure from prolonged drought of the previous three years. Many orchards were in an “off year” of their natural alternate bearing cycle and scab was similarly more of a problem in Central Texas than usual. July flooding in some areas also caused tree damage and crop losses.

In West Texas, the pecan crop potential was lowered in some orchards by an early spring frost and then hail in late spring, but otherwise the growing conditions have been normal and conducive to good production.

Market challenges persist

Even as growers look toward the upcoming harvest, market prices remain a pressing concern for producers, Nesbitt said. Wholesale pecan prices have lingered below $2 per pound in recent years, creating financial strain for many producers.

“There’s frustration across the industry,” Nesbitt said. “Growers don’t understand why prices are so low. It shouldn’t be from oversupply since domestic production has not been really high. It’s generally thought to be a mix of global trade factors and a reduction in the number of shellers.”

Retail and direct-to-consumer sales remain strong, with increased consumer awareness of expanded ways to cook with pecans beyond traditional holiday baking. Promotion at state, national and local levels are helping boost that awareness, Nesbitt said, but the wholesale outlook remains uncertain.

“There’s optimism that new markets, like India, could help,” he said. “But right now, the perception among many growers is that current wholesale prices are not sustainable.”

Long-term perspective for Texas pecans

Despite market and weather-related pressures, Nesbitt said Texas pecan producers are hoping better days are ahead. The state’s size and regional diversity mean productivity often shifts year by year, creating statewide consistency overall despite localized highs and lows.

As growers and pecan industry organizations mobilize to raise the nut’s profile with consumers, researchers like Nesbitt continue to work on solutions for pecan scab and other pest and disease issues that increase costs and hamper production.

“The good news is that scab-resistant varieties exist,” Nesbitt said. “We’re working to identify and develop trees that can hold up and produce good pecans with fewer inputs. That’s the future for growers and homeowners alike.”