ISSN: 1948-9080
Released March 20, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent
Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.7 million head on
March 1, 2015. The inventory was 1 percent below March 1, 2014.
Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.52 million, 8 percent below
- Net placements were 1.46 million head. During February, placements of
cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 330,000, 600-699 pounds
were 270,000, 700-799 pounds were 388,000, and 800 pounds and greater were
535,000.
Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.52 million, 2 percent
below 2014. February marketings are the lowest since the series began in
1996.
Other disappearance totaled 62,000 during February, 13 percent below 2014.
Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots – United States: March 1, 2014 and 2015
———————————————————————————–
: Number : Percent of
Item :—————————:
: 2014 : 2015 :previous year
———————————————————————————–
: —- 1,000 head —- percent
:
On feed February 1 …………………: 10,678 10,713 100
Placed on feed during February ………: 1,658 1,523 92
Fed cattle marketed during February ….: 1,549 1,516 98
Other disappearance during February ….: 71 62 87
On feed March 1 ……………………: 10,716 10,658 99
———————————————————————————–
Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots – United States: February 1, 2014 and 2015
———————————————————————————–
: Number : Percent of
Item :—————————:
: 2014 : 2015 :previous year
———————————————————————————–
: —- 1,000 head —- percent
:
On feed January 1 ………………….: 10,523 10,626 101
Placed on feed during January ……….: 2,014 1,789 89
Fed cattle marketed during January …..: 1,788 1,625 91
Other disappearance during January …..: 71 77 108
On feed February 1 …………………: 10,678 10,713 100
———————————————————————————–
Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and United States:
2014 and 2015
—————————————————————————————————
: : : March 1, 2015
: : :——————————————–
State : March 1, 2014 :February 1, 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of
: : : Number :previous year :previous month
—————————————————————————————————
: ————— 1,000 head ————– —– percent —-
:
Arizona ……….: 272 247 243 89 98
California …….: 500 440 440 88 100
Colorado ………: 920 890 870 95 98
Idaho …………: 205 230 230 112 100
Iowa ………….: 670 650 660 99 102
Kansas ………..: 2,060 2,090 2,080 101 100
Minnesota ……..: 134 141 145 108 103
Nebraska ………: 2,470 2,500 2,490 101 100
Oklahoma ………: 270 265 275 102 104
South Dakota …..: 220 230 235 107 102
Texas …………: 2,470 2,490 2,450 99 98
Washington …….: 200 210 215 108 102
:
Other States …..: 325 330 325 100 98
:
United States ….: 10,716 10,713 10,658 99 99
—————————————————————————————————
Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and
United States: 2014 and 2015
———————————————————————————————
: : : During February 2015
: During : During :——————————————–
State :February 2014 : January 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of
: : : Number :previous year :previous month
———————————————————————————————
: ———— 1,000 head ———– —– percent —-
:
Arizona ……….: 28 30 19 68 63
California …….: 38 64 50 132 78
Colorado ………: 135 135 130 96 96
Idaho …………: 37 35 31 84 89
Iowa ………….: 86 90 85 99 94
Kansas ………..: 335 410 355 106 87
Minnesota ……..: 11 17 18 164 106
Nebraska ………: 430 505 390 91 77
Oklahoma ………: 43 50 42 98 84
South Dakota …..: 39 30 41 105 137
Texas …………: 410 350 285 70 81
Washington …….: 38 40 43 113 108
:
Other States …..: 28 33 34 121 103
:
United States ….: 1,658 1,789 1,523 92 85
———————————————————————————————
Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month –
States and United States: 2014 and 2015
—————————————————————————————-
: During February
:———————————————————————
State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total
:———————————————————————
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
—————————————————————————————-
: 1,000 head
:
Colorado ………: 30 25 25 25 35 35 45 45 135 130
Kansas ………..: 60 60 60 65 90 95 125 135 335 355
Nebraska ………: 65 60 90 65 105 95 170 170 430 390
Texas …………: 155 100 90 50 100 75 65 60 410 285
:
Other States …..: 80 85 65 65 88 88 115 125 348 363
:
United States ….: 390 330 330 270 418 388 520 535 1,658 1,523
:———————————————————————
: During January
:———————————————————————
State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total
:———————————————————————
: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015
:———————————————————————
: 1,000 head
:
Colorado ………: 45 30 45 25 50 35 50 45 190 135
Kansas ………..: 65 65 90 85 145 125 135 135 435 410
Nebraska ………: 75 65 115 100 165 140 190 200 545 505
Texas …………: 160 125 80 60 95 95 70 70 405 350
:
Other States …..: 125 125 105 70 104 79 105 115 439 389
:
United States ….: 470 410 435 340 559 474 550 565 2,014 1,789
—————————————————————————————-
Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and United States:
2014 and 2015
———————————————————————————————
: : : During February 2015
: During : During :——————————————–
State :February 2014 : January 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of
: : : Number :previous year :previous month
———————————————————————————————
: ———— 1,000 head ———– —– percent —-
:
Arizona ……….: 27 23 19 70 83
California …….: 55 44 43 78 98
Colorado ………: 155 140 145 94 104
Idaho …………: 41 34 29 71 85
Iowa ………….: 74 78 74 100 95
Kansas ………..: 315 355 355 113 100
Minnesota ……..: 12 12 13 108 108
Nebraska ………: 375 450 385 103 86
Oklahoma ………: 36 39 30 83 77
South Dakota …..: 36 27 35 97 130
Texas …………: 360 345 315 88 91
Washington …….: 36 38 36 100 95
:
Other States …..: 27 40 37 137 93
:
United States ….: 1,549 1,625 1,516 98 93
———————————————————————————————
Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and United States:
2014 and 2015
———————————————————————————————
: : : During February 2015
: During : During :——————————————–
State :February 2014 : January 2015 : : Percent of : Percent of
: : : Number :previous year :previous month
———————————————————————————————
: ———- 1,000 head ———- —– percent —-
:
Arizona ……….: 1 9 4 400 44
California …….: 3 5 7 233 140
Colorado ………: 10 5 5 50 100
Idaho …………: 1 1 2 200 200
Iowa ………….: 2 2 1 50 50
Kansas ………..: 10 15 10 100 67
Minnesota ……..: 1 1 1 100 100
Nebraska ………: 15 15 15 100 100
Oklahoma ………: 2 1 2 100 200
South Dakota …..: 3 3 1 33 33
Texas …………: 20 15 10 50 67
Washington …….: 2 2 2 100 100
:
Other States …..: 1 3 2 200 67
:
United States ….: 71 77 62 87 81
———————————————————————————————
Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates
Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or
protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a
carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being
“backgrounded only” for later sale as feeders or later placement in another
feedlot.
Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a
carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter
market.
Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market.
Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture,
and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.
Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates
Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United
States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for
cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16
States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of
the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.
Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States.
Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the “Other
States” estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and
Wyoming. The “Other States” category represents all cattle on feed with a
capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States.
Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the
Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis
submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed
for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month
when establishing the current estimates.
Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to
month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision
in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all
monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and
annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions.
The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand
data, and any other data that may have been received after the original
estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census
of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and
estimates become final.
Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every
State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors
such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and
processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.
They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection
process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report,
the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected items in the table on the
following page. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and
latest estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for cattle on feed inventory
estimates over the past 24 months is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current
estimate of 10.7 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of
10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent.
The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of
differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using
estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate
and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 54,000 head,
ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has
been above the latest estimate 20 times and has been below the latest
estimate 3 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to
understate or overstate final inventory.
Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
————————————————————————————————————————–
: Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate
: square error : confidence : : : : :
: : level :————————————————————-
Item : : : : : : Months
: : : : : :——————————-
: : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest
————————————————————————————————————————–
: percent percent ——– 1,000 ——- —– number —–
:
Number on feed ……………: 0.6 1.0 54 0 97 3 20
:
Placements ……………….: 1.3 2.2 15 1 55 10 14
:
Marketings ……………….: 1.0 1.7 10 0 47 0 9
————————————————————————————————————————–
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock
Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ……….. (202) 720-3570
Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ……….. (202) 690-2424
Travis Averill – Cattle, Cattle on Feed …… (202) 720-3040
Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter …… (202) 720-3240
Doug Bounds – Hogs and Pigs ……………… (202) 720-3106
Donnie Fike – Dairy Products …………….. (202) 690-3236
Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
Evan Schulz – Sheep and Goats ……………. (202) 720-6147
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