Cattle on Feed

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141

ISSN: 1948-9080

 

Released March 20, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service

(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of

Agriculture (USDA).

 

United States Cattle on Feed Down 1 Percent

 

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for

feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.7 million head on

March 1, 2015. The inventory was 1 percent below March 1, 2014.

 

Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.52 million, 8 percent below

  1. Net placements were 1.46 million head. During February, placements of

cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 330,000, 600-699 pounds

were 270,000, 700-799 pounds were 388,000, and 800 pounds and greater were

535,000.

 

Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.52 million, 2 percent

below 2014. February marketings are the lowest since the series began in

1996.

 

Other disappearance totaled 62,000 during February, 13 percent below 2014.

 

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on

1,000+ Capacity Feedlots – United States: March 1, 2014 and 2015

———————————————————————————–

:         Number           : Percent of

Item                 :—————————:

:   2014     :   2015     :previous year

———————————————————————————–

:   —- 1,000 head —-       percent

:

On feed February 1 …………………:   10,678       10,713         100

Placed on feed during February ………:   1,658         1,523           92

Fed cattle marketed during February ….:   1,549         1,516           98

Other disappearance during February ….:       71           62           87

On feed March 1 ……………………:   10,716       10,658           99

———————————————————————————–

 

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on

1,000+ Capacity Feedlots – United States: February 1, 2014 and 2015

———————————————————————————–

:         Number           : Percent of

Item                 :—————————:

:   2014     :   2015     :previous year

———————————————————————————–

:   —- 1,000 head —-       percent

:

On feed January 1 ………………….:   10,523       10,626         101

Placed on feed during January ……….:   2,014         1,789           89

Fed cattle marketed during January …..:   1,788         1,625           91

Other disappearance during January …..:       71           77         108

On feed February 1 …………………:   10,678       10,713         100

———————————————————————————–

 

Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and United States:

2014 and 2015

—————————————————————————————————

:                 :                 :               March 1, 2015

:                 :                 :——————————————–

State     : March 1, 2014 :February 1, 2015 :             : Percent of : Percent of

:                 :                 :   Number   :previous year :previous month

—————————————————————————————————

:     ————— 1,000 head ————–         —– percent —-

:

Arizona ……….:       272               247             243           89             98

California …….:       500               440             440          88           100

Colorado ………:       920               890             870           95             98

Idaho …………:       205               230             230         112           100

Iowa ………….:       670               650             660           99           102

Kansas ………..:     2,060             2,090           2,080         101           100

Minnesota ……..:       134               141             145         108            103

Nebraska ………:     2,470             2,500           2,490         101           100

Oklahoma ………:       270               265             275         102           104

South Dakota …..:       220              230             235         107           102

Texas …………:     2,470             2,490           2,450           99             98

Washington …….:       200               210             215         108           102

:

Other States …..:       325               330             325         100             98

:

United States ….:     10,716           10,713           10,658           99             99

—————————————————————————————————

 

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and

United States: 2014 and 2015

———————————————————————————————

:             :             :          During February 2015

:   During   :   During   :——————————————–

State     :February 2014 : January 2015 :             : Percent of : Percent of

:             :             :   Number   :previous year :previous month

———————————————————————————————

:   ———— 1,000 head ———–           —– percent —-

:

Arizona ……….:       28             30             19           68             63

California …….:       38             64             50           132            78

Colorado ………:     135           135           130           96             96

Idaho …………:       37             35             31           84             89

Iowa ………….:       86             90            85           99             94

Kansas ………..:     335           410           355           106             87

Minnesota ……..:       11             17             18           164           106

Nebraska ………:    430           505           390           91             77

Oklahoma ………:       43             50             42           98             84

South Dakota …..:       39             30             41           105           137

Texas …………:     410           350           285           70             81

Washington …….:       38             40             43           113           108

:

Other States …..:       28             33             34           121           103

:

United States ….:   1,658         1,789         1,523           92             85

———————————————————————————————

 

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month –

States and United States: 2014 and 2015

—————————————————————————————-

:                           During February

:———————————————————————

State     :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs   :   Total

:———————————————————————

: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015

—————————————————————————————-

:                             1,000 head

:

Colorado ………: 30     25     25     25     35     35     45     45     135   130

Kansas ………..: 60     60     60     65     90     95   125   135    335   355

Nebraska ………: 65     60     90     65   105     95   170   170     430   390

Texas …………: 155   100     90     50   100     75     65     60     410   285

:

Other States …..: 80     85     65     65     88     88   115   125     348   363

:

United States ….: 390   330   330   270   418    388   520   535   1,658 1,523

 

:———————————————————————

:                           During January

:———————————————————————

State     :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs   :   Total

:———————————————————————

: 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 : 2015

:———————————————————————

:                             1,000 head

:

Colorado ………: 45     30     45     25     50     35     50     45     190   135

Kansas ………..: 65     65     90     85   145   125   135   135     435   410

Nebraska ………: 75     65   115   100   165   140   190   200     545   505

Texas …………: 160   125     80     60     95     95     70     70     405   350

:

Other States …..: 125   125   105     70   104     79   105   115     439   389

:

United States ….: 470   410   435   340   559   474   550   565 2,014 1,789

—————————————————————————————-

 

Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and United States:

2014 and 2015

———————————————————————————————

:             :             :           During February 2015

:   During   :   During   :——————————————–

State     :February 2014 : January 2015 :             : Percent of : Percent of

:             :             :   Number   :previous year :previous month

———————————————————————————————

:   ———— 1,000 head ———–           —– percent —-

:

Arizona ……….:       27             23             19          70             83

California …….:       55             44             43           78             98

Colorado ………:     155           140           145           94           104

Idaho …………:       41            34             29           71             85

Iowa ………….:       74             78             74           100             95

Kansas ………..:     315           355           355           113           100

Minnesota ……..:       12             12             13           108           108

Nebraska ………:     375           450           385           103             86

Oklahoma ………:       36             39             30           83            77

South Dakota …..:       36             27             35           97           130

Texas …………:     360           345           315           88             91

Washington …….:       36             38            36           100             95

:

Other States …..:       27             40             37           137             93

:

United States ….:   1,549         1,625         1,516           98             93

———————————————————————————————

 

Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and United States:

2014 and 2015

———————————————————————————————

:             :             :           During February 2015

:   During   :   During   :——————————————–

State     :February 2014 : January 2015 :             : Percent of : Percent of

:             :            :   Number   :previous year :previous month

———————————————————————————————

:     ———- 1,000 head ———-           —– percent —-

:

Arizona ……….:       1             9             4           400             44

California …….:       3             5             7           233          140

Colorado ………:     10             5             5             50           100

Idaho …………:       1             1             2           200           200

Iowa ………….:       2             2            1             50             50

Kansas ………..:     10             15             10           100             67

Minnesota ……..:       1             1             1           100           100

Nebraska ………:     15             15             15           100           100

Oklahoma ………:       2             1             2           100           200

South Dakota …..:       3             3             1             33             33

Texas …………:     20             15             10             50             67

Washington …….:       2             2             2           100           100

:

Other States …..:       1             3             2           200             67

:

United States ….:     71             77             62             87             81

———————————————————————————————

 

Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates

 

Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or

protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a

carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being

“backgrounded only” for later sale as feeders or later placement in another

feedlot.

 

Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a

carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter

market.

 

Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market.

 

Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture,

and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.

 

Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates

 

Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United

States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for

cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16

States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of

the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.

Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States.

Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the “Other

States” estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and

Wyoming. The “Other States” category represents all cattle on feed with a

capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States.

 

Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the

Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis

submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed

for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month

when establishing the current estimates.

 

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to

month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision

in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all

monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and

annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions.

The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand

data, and any other data that may have been received after the original

estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census

of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and

estimates become final.

 

Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every

State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to

sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors

such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and

processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.

They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection

process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and

reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report,

the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected items in the table on the

following page. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based

on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and

latest estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for cattle on feed inventory

estimates over the past 24 months is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are

2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current

estimate of 10.7 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of

10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent.

 

The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of

differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using

estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate

and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 54,000 head,

ranging from 0 to 97,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has

been above the latest estimate 20 times and has been below the latest

estimate 3 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to

understate or overstate final inventory.

 

Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates

[Based on data for the past 24 months]

————————————————————————————————————————–

: Root mean   : 90 percent :       Difference between first and latest estimate

: square error : confidence :         :         :         :               :

:             :   level     :————————————————————-

Item             :             :             :         :         :         :           Months

:             :             :         :         :         :——————————-

:             :             : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest

————————————————————————————————————————–

:   percent       percent       ——– 1,000 ——-           —– number —–

:

Number on feed ……………:     0.6           1.0         54         0       97           3             20

:

Placements ……………….:     1.3           2.2         15         1       55           10             14

:

Marketings ……………….:     1.0           1.7         10         0       47           0               9

————————————————————————————————————————–

 

Information Contacts

 

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock

Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to

contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent

to [email protected]

 

Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ……….. (202) 720-3570

 

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ……….. (202) 690-2424

Travis Averill – Cattle, Cattle on Feed …… (202) 720-3040

Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter …… (202) 720-3240

Doug Bounds – Hogs and Pigs ……………… (202) 720-3106

Donnie Fike – Dairy Products …………….. (202) 690-3236

Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278

Evan Schulz – Sheep and Goats ……………. (202) 720-6147

 

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