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Herd expansion could mean lower pork prices for consumers by the middle of next year.
MANHATTAN, Kan. – The U.S. pork industry today is small by historic standards. But, signs of producers holding back more females to increase the breeding herd mean the industry is in the process of expanding, which could put more pounds of pork in grocery stores by the middle of next year.
“We continue to have historically high hog prices, as well as retail pork prices,” said Glynn Tonsor, livestock economist for K-State Research and Extension. “We also have improving production costs as grain prices are coming down. That’s sending a signal, an economic incentive, for pork producers to expand so they can sell more pigs at a positive dollar per head margin than they did last year.”
Information about the state of the U.S. pork industry was included in the quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service on Sept. 26. Tonsor said the report provides the best estimate of the current size of the industry and how large it will be in the future.
According to the report, the inventory of all hogs and pigs on Sept. 1, 2014 was 65.4 million head, which was 2 percent lower than a year ago but up 6 percent from June of this year. The breeding inventory was at 5.92 million head, up 2 percent from last year and up 1 percent from June. The market hog inventory was at 59.4 million head, down 3 percent from last year but 7 percent higher than it was in June.
Further, U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.89 million sows farrow, or have pigs, during the September through November 2014 quarter, which is up 4 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2013 and up slightly from 2012. A projected 2.87 million sows will farrow December through February 2015, up 4 percent from 2014 and up 3 percent from 2013.
A consumer focus
What does this expansion outlook mean for pork consumers? Tonsor said most likely around the middle of next year, retailers will see an increase in pork supplies coming from this expansion. An increase in supplies likely means cheaper pork prices for consumers.
“None of this is guaranteed, but our current estimate is that we’re going to have more sows, and therefore more pigs and more pork pounds that show up starting around April 2015,” he said. “There will be some relief in high prices (consumers) have been seeing for some time now. Most of these adjustments take a long time, not quite as long of a biological lag that we have in the cattle industry, but they still take time.”
Specifically, it would take in excess of eight months from starting the process of holding back females, to breeding them, to farrowing them, to weaning their pigs and feeding them to a finished market weight.
“The reason I highlight that is the tight pork supply situation we have today is here for the rest of 2014,” Tonsor said. “Couple that with strong meat demand in general, strong pork demand in particular, we’re probably going to have historically high pork prices the rest of 2014.”
One of the greatest challenges the U.S. pork industry has faced recently is PEDv, or porcine epidemic diarrhea virus. Discovered in the United States for the first time in 2013, PEDv is a disease caused by a porcine coronavirus and can lead to vomiting and occasional diarrhea in sows and gilts and severe diarrhea and vomiting in nursing and recently weaned pigs, according to Kansas State University’s College of Veterinary Medicine (http://www.vet.k-state.edu/depts/dmp/service/news/KSVDL_PEDV_fact_sheet.pdf).
PEDv spreads quickly and can lead to severe sickness and death in pigs, although it is not a threat to food safety or humans. A Pork Checkoff report (www.pork.org/News/4678/PEDVsImapct.aspx#.VC7IH3i9Kc0) estimates the disease caused a loss of 7 million to 8 million pigs from June 2013 to April 2014.
“To the extent we have additional concerns about PEDv, that could mute some of this increase in pork production,” Tonsor said.
PEDv has reduced the amount of pigs weaned per litter, he said, and the net effect is fewer market hogs in the United States, therefore fewer pork pounds produced. In the past, the virus has hit swine herds worse from November through April. Although vaccines have been developed recently, it’s unknown if producers can battle the virus more effectively through the coming winter with use of the new vaccines.
Pork demand still high
Despite the recent and current tight supply situation caused in a large part by PEDv, Tonsor said retail pork demand has been strong. Given the pounds produced and consumed in the United States recently, the retail price realized was higher than most expected.
“The second quarter of 2014 was actually the best quarter for retail pork demand, the way I estimate it, in more than 10 years,” he said. “It’s important to recognize that’s a positive signal for the entire pork industry, because the public was willing to pay more for those reduced pork pounds than we expected.”
“The U.S. public sees more value in those (pork) products,” he continued. “Maybe the products are more convenient. Maybe the consumers were less sensitive to the price or had improving incomes. Probably some of all of the above is actually truth, which led to this positive demand story.”
Access the full Sept. 26 quarterly hogs and pigs report at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1086.
Story By: Katie Allen
Farms and ranches offer children a unique environment in which to live, play, work and grow up.
With all the excitement and whirlwind of activities, potential hazards lurk around every machine shed, tractor, silo and grain bin.
Like a moth to a flame, belching diesel smoke, the roar of engines and rubber wheels on tractors, combines or silage cutters draw children to them. And like fire, they can be dangerous.
Such equipment can cut, crush, trap or kill children. It can harm the ones we want to protect the most – our children.
Childhood farm injuries and fatalities most often occur while children play where farm activities are going on, or the youngsters are innocent bystanders.
Each year, hundreds of children are killed, and thousands more are injured in farm-related incidents, according to National Safety Council statistics.
Children younger than 10 years old experience one of the highest rates of pediatric farm-related injuries, says Holly Higgins, Kansas Farm Bureau safety director.
“In an ideal world, parents should keep children away from farming activities and environmental hazards associated with farming and ranching,” Higgins says. “Never invite children to ride in the tractor. Stress that your youngsters stay away from machinery. Don’t let them play or hide under or around machinery like tractors.”
Education and awareness are the key ingredients to help make the farm a safer place for children to play, Higgins says. Brushing up on some of the potential hazards can also make it safer for parents.
While barns, grain handling facilities and big buildings can be fun to play in, children can fall or be exposed to harmful substances like chemicals and electricity.
Explain the dangers associated with stored grain. Stress that grain can entrap a person almost immediately. Children should never play around, or in grain that is stored in bins, trucks or wagons. Emphasize that it is difficult, or can be impossible, to pull a child out of grain if he/she becomes trapped.
Discuss with your children the potential dangers involved with farm animals. Remind them that while animals are fun to be around they can also bite, trample and stomp.
Tell your youngsters the signs that show an animal may be dangerous. Some of them include pawing the ground, snorting, raised hair and ears laid back.
“Animals – even friendly ones – can be unpredictable,” Higgins says. “Have children stay away from large ones. Emphasize they stay away from animals with newborn or young. Tell them to remain calm, speak quietly and move slowly when around animals.”
Wide-open spaces can provide children with ideal playgrounds. However, this isolation may also lead to difficulty finding help in the event of an emergency.
Remember, it is important youngsters have a safe place to play. Ask them to identify safe play areas. Talk about areas away from farm machinery, animals, manure pits and silos.
Carefully define safe boundaries. Let children know where they can and cannot play.
Safe play areas remain the best alternative to bringing children into the worksite. This is especially important when off-farm child care is not available.
Keep your youngsters safe while they play on the farm.
John Schlageck is a leading commentator on agriculture and rural Kansas. Born and raised on a diversified farm in northwestern Kansas, his writing reflects a lifetime of experience, knowledge and passion.
cover photo – Joel Dinda
– See more at: http://www.kfb.org/news/insight/index.html#sthash.F4yK7Yd0.dpuf
credit: Cheney Recreation Commission
Grab your little ones and dress up in your Halloween costumes and grab your flashlight for another fun family adventure. Some goblins dropped a bunch of goodies & fun items at the Fairground ball field for you to find. Participants will be required to bring their own flashlight (no spotlights are allowed), and may collect a total of 10 spooky special items & other goodies. Children 8 & under must be accompanied by an adult. We will not be able to take any new participants the night of the event. No school Friday, October 24. If weather is bad, event will move to the CRC building, 223 E. South Ave.
Date: Thursday, October 23
Time: 7:15 p.m.
Age: 11 years old & under
Location: Meet at the Fairgrounds Front Gates
Fee: $3 per seeker
Deadline: Monday, October 20
cover photo – Stuart Richards
Flu Shot Clinic will be held on Tuesday, 10/21 at City Hall from 2-4 PM.
Insurance and Medicare accepted.
Shots available for all ages.
cover photo – Blake Patterson
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