Cattle on feed

0
244

ISSN: 1948-9080

Released December 19, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.9 million head on
December 1, 2014. The inventory was 1 percent above December 1, 2013.

Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.79 million, 4 percent below
2013. Net placements were 1.72 million head. During November, placements of
cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 550,000, 600-699 pounds
were 440,000, 700-799 pounds were 362,000, and 800 pounds and greater were
440,000. For the month of November, placements are the second lowest since
the series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.48 million, 11 percent
below 2013. November marketings are the lowest since the series began in
1996.

Other disappearance totaled 74,000 during November, 9 percent above 2013.

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots – United States: December 1, 2013 and 2014
——————————

———————————————-
——-
:          Number           :
Percent of
Item                  :—————————:

:    2013     :    2014
:previous year
—————————————————————————-
——-
:   —- 1,000 head —-
percent
:

On feed November 1 …………………:   10,585        10,633
100
Placed on feed during November ………:    1,867         1,792
96
Fed cattle marketed during November ….:    1,660         1,475
89
Other disappearance during November ….:       68            74
109
On feed December 1 …………………:   10,724        10,876
101
—————————————————————————-
——-

Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots – United States: November 1, 2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
——-
:          Number           :
Percent of
Item                  :—————————:

:    2013     :    2014
:previous year
—————————————————————————-
——-
:   —- 1,000 head —-
percent
:

On feed October 1 ………………….:   10,110        10,058
99
Placed on feed during October ……….:    2,378         2,357
99
Fed cattle marketed during October …..:    1,827         1,685
92
Other disappearance during October …..:       76            97
128
On feed November 1 …………………:   10,585        10,633
100
—————————————————————————-
——-

Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and
United States:
2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
———————–
:                 :                 :
December 1, 2014
:                 :
:—————————–—————
State      :December 1, 2013 :November 1, 2014 :              :
Percent of  :  Percent of
:                 :                 :    Number
:previous year :previous month
—————————————————————————-
———————–
:     ————— 1,000 head ————–
—– percent —-
:

Arizona ……….:        275               250              252
92            101
California …….:        505               420              435
86            104
Colorado ………:        970               900              930
96            103
Idaho …………:        225               220              230
102            105
Iowa ………….:        610               590              610
100            103
Kansas ………..:      2,050             2,080            2,100
102            101
Minnesota ……..:        122               132              135
111            102
Nebraska ………:      2,430             2,450            2,550
105            104
Oklahoma ………:        265               260              260
98            100
South Dakota …..:        220               230              245
111            107
Texas …………:      2,510             2,550            2,560
102            100
Washington …….:        207               226              234
113            104
:

Other States …..:        335               325              335
100            103
:

United States ….:     10,724            10,633           10,876
101            102
—————————————————————————-
———————–

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month –
States and United States: 2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:              :              :            During November
2014
:    During    :    During
:—————————–—————
State      :November 2013 : October 2014 :              :  Percent of
:  Percent of
:              :              :    Number    :previous
year :previous month
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:    ———— 1,000 head ———–           —–
percent —-
:

Arizona ……….:       30             22             26            87
118
California …….:       63             53             62            98
117
Colorado ………:      165            210            155            94
74
Idaho …………:       42             61             43           102
70
Iowa ………….:      122            132            117            96
89
Kansas ………..:      365            420            320            88
76
Minnesota ……..:       18             30             15            83
50
Nebraska ………:      475            660            485           102
73
Oklahoma ………:       40             60             45           113
75
South Dakota …..:       61             84             53            87
63
Texas …………:      405            520            385            95
74
Washington …….:       44             51             47           107
92
:

Other States …..:       37             54             39           105
72
:

United States ….:    1,867          2,357          1,792            96
76
—————————————————————————-
—————–

Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots
by Month – States and United States: 2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
————
:                           During November

:—————————–—————————————-
State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :
Total

:—————————–—————————————-
: 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 :
2013 : 2014
—————————————————————————-
————
:                             1,000 head

:

Colorado ………:  50     45     50     40     30     30     35     40
165    155
Kansas ………..:  80     65     90     75    105     95     90     85
365    320
Nebraska ………: 120    120    135    120     80     85    140    160
475    485
Texas …………: 165    160    115     95     75     80     50     50
405    385
:

Other States …..: 165    160    120    110     62     72    110    105
457    447
:

United States ….: 580    550    510    440    352    362    425    440
1,867  1,792

:—————————–—————————————-
:                           During October

:—————————–—————————————-
State      :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs :  800+ lbs   :
Total

:—————————–—————————————-
: 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 : 2013 : 2014 :
2013 : 2014

:—————————–—————————————-
:                             1,000 head

:

Colorado ………:  80     55     50     45     45     45     55     65
230    210
Kansas ………..:  90     85    120    100    140    115    120    120
470    420
Nebraska ………: 170    170    170    165     90     95    200    230
630    660
Texas …………: 190    180    120    130    145    130     65     80
520    520
:

Other States …..: 190    200    118    130     85     77    135    140
528    547
:

United States ….: 720    690    578    570    505    462    575    635
2,378  2,357
—————————————————————————-
————

Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and
United States:
2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:              :              :            During November
2014
:    During    :    During
:—————————–—————
State      :November 2013 : October 2014 :              :  Percent of
:  Percent of
:              :              :    Number    :previous
year :previous month
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:    ———— 1,000 head ———–           —–
percent —-
:

Arizona ……….:       24             21             19            79
90
California …….:       51             40             43            84
108
Colorado ………:      140            145            120            86
83
Idaho …………:       36             45             32            89
71
Iowa ………….:      100            100             95            95
95
Kansas ………..:      345            320            285            83
89
Minnesota ……..:       12             11             11            92
100
Nebraska ………:      400            430            370            93
86
Oklahoma ………:       43             43             43           100
100
South Dakota …..:       39             43             34            87
79
Texas …………:      400            420            360            90
86
Washington …….:       39             35             37            95
106
:

Other States …..:       31             32             26            84
81
:

United States ….:    1,660          1,685          1,475            89
88
—————————————————————————-
—————–

Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month – States and United
States:
2013 and 2014
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:              :              :            During November
2014
:    During    :    During
:—————————–—————
State      :November 2013 : October 2014 :              :  Percent of
:  Percent of
:              :              :    Number    :previous
year :previous month
—————————————————————————-
—————–
:      ———- 1,000 head ———-            —–
percent —-
:

Arizona ……….:       1              3              5            500
167
California …….:       2              8              4            200
50
Colorado ………:       5              5              5            100
100
Idaho …………:       1              1              1            100
100
Iowa ………….:       2              2              2            100
100
Kansas ………..:      20             30             15             75
50
Minnesota ……..:       1              1              1            100
100
Nebraska ………:      15             20             15            100
75
Oklahoma ………:       2              2              2            100
100
South Dakota …..:       2              1              4            200
400
Texas …………:      15             20             15            100
75
Washington …….:       1              2              2            200
100
:

Other States …..:       1              2              3            300
150
:

United States ….:      68             97             74            109
76
—————————————————————————-
—————–

Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or
protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a
carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being
“backgrounded only” for later sale as feeders or later placement in another
feedlot.

Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a
carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter
market.

Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market.

Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture,
and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.

Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United
States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for
cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from
16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent
of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.
Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States.
Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the “Other
States” estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and
Wyoming. The “Other States” category represents all cattle on feed with a
capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States.

Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the
Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis
submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed
for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous
month when establishing the current estimates.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month
to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to
revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In
February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of
feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject
to revisions.
The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand
data, and any other data that may have been received after the original
estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the
Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that
date and estimates become final.

Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every
State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject
to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling
errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be
measured directly.
They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection
process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency
and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report,
the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected items in the table on the
following page. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and
latest estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for cattle on feed inventory
estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances
are
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current
estimate of 10.9 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of
10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent.

The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of
differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using
estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first
estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged
9,000 head, ranging from 0 to 34,000 head. During this period the initial
estimate has been above the latest estimate 8 times and has been below the
latest estimate
6 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to
understate or overstate final inventory.

Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [Based on data for the past
24 months]
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-
:  Root mean   :  90 percent  :
Difference between first and latest estimate
: square error :  confidence  :         :
:         :               :
:              :    level
:—————————–——————————
Item             :              :              :         :
:         :            Months
:              :              :         :
:         :—————————–
:              :              : Average
:Smallest : Largest : Below latest  : Above latest
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-
:   percent        percent        ——–
1,000 ——-            —– number —-
:

Number on feed ……………:     0.1            0.2           9         0
34            6               8
:

Placements ……………….:     1.6            2.7          15         0
88            2              13
:

Marketings ……………….:     1.4            2.3          15         0
67            0              12
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the
National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional
information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected].

Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ……….. (202) 720-3570

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ……….. (202) 690-2424
Travis Averill – Cattle, Cattle on Feed …… (202) 720-3040
Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter …… (202) 720-3240
Doug Bounds – Hogs and Pigs ……………… (202) 720-3106
Donnie Fike – Dairy Products …………….. (202) 690-3236
Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
Evan Schulz – Sheep and Goats ……………. (202) 720-6147

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ways:

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web
site: http://www.nass.usda.gov

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[email protected].

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