Milk production

0
232

ISSN: 1949-1557

Released December 19, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

November Milk Production up 3.5 Percent

Milk production in the 23 major States during November totaled 15.5 billion
pounds, up 3.5 percent from November 2013. October revised production, at
16.0 billion pounds, was up 3.7 percent from October 2013.  The October
revision represented a decrease of 35 million pounds or 0.2 percent from
last month’s preliminary production estimate.

Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,806 pounds for
November,
41 pounds above November 2013. This is the highest production per cow for
the month of November since the 23 State series began in 2003.

The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.59 million
head, 93,000 head more than November 2013, and 3,000 head more than October
2014.

November Milk Production in the United States up 3.4 Percent

Milk production in the United States during November totaled 16.5 billion
pounds, up 3.4 percent from November 2013.

Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,782 pounds for November,
42 pounds above November 2013.

The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.28 million head,
82,000 head more than November 2013, and 4,000 head more than October 2014.

Milk Cows and Production by Quarter – United States: 2013-2014 [May not add
due to rounding]
——————————

———————————————-
———–
:   Milk Cows 1/   :  Milk Per Cow 2/  :      Milk
Production 2/

:—————————–—————————————-
Quarter     :        :         :         :         :         :
:  Change
:2013 3/ :  2014   : 2013 3/ :  2014   :  2013   :  2014
:   From
:        :         :         :         :         :
:   2013
—————————————————————————-
———–
:    1,000 Head      —- Pounds —-     Million Pounds
Percent
:

January-March …:           9,214               5,540     50,545   51,046
1.0
April-June ……:           9,253               5,713     51,997   52,861
1.7
July-September ..: 9,224     9,271     5,356     5,518     49,408   51,156
3.5
October-December : 9,201               5,355               49,268

:

Annual ……….: 9,221              21,822              201,218

—————————————————————————-
———–
1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.

2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.

3/ Survey was not conducted in April and July, resulting in no milk cow and
milk per
cow data for March through June. 2013 annual totals include modeled data.

Milk Cows and Production By Month – 23 Selected States: 2013-2014
—————————————————————————-
——————————————–
:         Milk cows1/         :       Milk per cow2/        :
Milk production2/

:—————————–———————————————-
—————————–
:              :              :              :              :
:              :    Change
Month     :   2013 3/    :     2014     :   2013 3/    :     2014     :
2013     :     2014     :     from
:              :              :              :              :
:              :     2013

:—————————–———————————————-
—————————–
:  1,000 head     1,000 head       pounds         pounds
million pounds million pounds    percent
:

January …….:    8,497          8,512           1,881         1,902
15,985         16,186          1.3
February ……:    8,498          8,513           1,732         1,750
14,715         14,899          1.3
March ………:                   8,521                         1,958
16,501         16,687          1.1
April ………:                   8,542                         1,912
16,105         16,332          1.4
May ………..:                   8,559                         1,977
16,648         16,922          1.6
June ……….:                   8,572                         1,893
15,860         16,227          2.3
July ……….:    8,522          8,583           1,850         1,909
15,762         16,388          4.0
August ……..:    8,522          8,582           1,850         1,885
15,768         16,174          2.6
September …..:    8,508          8,590           1,748         1,805
14,874         15,507          4.3
October …….:    8,504          8,589           1,817         1,864
15,449         16,013          3.7
November ……:    8,499          8,592           1,765         1,806
15,002         15,520          3.5
December ……:    8,504                          1,851
15,741
:

Annual ……..:    8,508                         22,145
188,410
—————————————————————————-
——————————————–
1/ Includes dry cows.  Excludes heifers not yet fresh.

2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.

3/ Survey was not conducted in April and July, resulting in no milk cow and
milk per cow data for March through June.

Estimated Milk Cows and Production By Month – United States: 2013-2014
—————————————————————————-
——————————————–
:         Milk cows1/         :       Milk per cow2/        :
Milk production2/

:—————————–———————————————-
—————————–
:              :              :              :              :
:              :    Change
Month     :   2013 3/    :     2014     :   2013 3/    :     2014     :
2013     :     2014     :     from
:              :              :              :              :
:              :     2013

:—————————–———————————————-
—————————–
:  1,000 head     1,000 head       pounds         pounds
million pounds million pounds    percent
:

January …….:    9,222          9,210           1,855         1,878
17,109         17,293          1.1
February ……:    9,223          9,212           1,709         1,728
15,759         15,920          1.0
March ………:                   9,221                         1,934
17,677         17,833          0.9
April ………:                   9,238                         1,891
17,249         17,468          1.3
May ………..:                   9,254                         1,954
17,813         18,080          1.5
June ……….:                   9,267                         1,868
16,935         17,313          2.2
July ……….:    9,235          9,271           1,818         1,882
16,788         17,448          3.9
August ……..:    9,229          9,265           1,819         1,858
16,789         17,214          2.5
September …..:    9,208          9,276           1,719         1,778
15,831         16,494          4.2
October …….:    9,203          9,276           1,790         1,839
16,475         17,060          3.6
November ……:    9,198          9,280           1,740         1,782
16,003         16,540          3.4
December ……:    9,202                          1,825
16,790
:

Annual ……..:    9,221                         21,822
201,218
—————————————————————————-
——————————————–
1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.

2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.

3/ Survey was not conducted in April and July, resulting in no milk cow and
milk per cow data for March through June.

Milk Cows and Production – 23 Selected States: November 2013 and 2014 [May
not add due to rounding]
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-
:        Milk cows 1/         :       Milk per cow 2/
:             Milk production 2/
State
:—————————–———————————————-
—————————–
:              :              :              :
:              :              :    Change
:     2013     :     2014     :     2013     :     2014
:     2013     :     2014     :     from
:              :              :              :
:              :              :     2013
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-
:  1,000 head     1,000 head       pounds         pounds
million pounds million pounds    percent
:

Arizona ………:      190            193          1,860          1,930
353            372           5.4
California ……:    1,780          1,780          1,840          1,880
3,275          3,346           2.2
Colorado ……..:      138            145          1,975          2,030
273            294           7.7
Florida ………:      123            123          1,495          1,535
184            189           2.7
Idaho ………..:      567            579          1,885          1,920
1,069          1,112           4.0
Illinois ……..:       96             92          1,550          1,550
149            143          -4.0
Indiana ………:      178            179          1,730          1,775
308            318           3.2
Iowa …………:      206            207          1,775          1,840
366            381           4.1
Kansas ……….:      135            143          1,800          1,800
243            257           5.8
Michigan ……..:      380            399          1,930          1,965
733            784           7.0
:

Minnesota …….:      461            460          1,565          1,615
721            743           3.1
New Mexico ……:      322            323          1,990          1,975
641            638          -0.5
New York ……..:      611            615          1,750          1,805
1,069          1,110           3.8
Ohio …………:      268            267          1,600          1,630
429            435           1.4
Oregon ……….:      123            124          1,625          1,615
200            200             –
Pennsylvania ….:      530            530          1,585          1,640
840            869           3.5
South Dakota ….:       95             97          1,735          1,810
165            176           6.7
Texas ………..:      440            470          1,770          1,785
779            839           7.7
Utah …………:       93             96          1,775          1,855
165            178           7.9
Vermont ………:      132            132          1,570          1,630
207            215           3.9
:

Virginia ……..:       94             92          1,490          1,535
140            141           0.7
Washington ……:      266            276          1,885          1,905
501            526           5.0
Wisconsin …….:    1,271          1,270          1,725          1,775
2,192          2,254           2.8
:

23-State Total ..:    8,499          8,592          1,765          1,806
15,002         15,520           3.5
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-
–  Represents zero.

1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.

2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Milk Cows and Production – 23 Selected States: October 2013 and 2014 [May
not add due to rounding]
—————————————————————————-
—————————–
:      Milk cows1/      :    Milk per cow2/     :
Milk Production 2/

:—————————–———————————————-
————–
:           :           :           :           :
:              :  Change
:   2013    :   2014    :   2013    :   2014    :     2013
:     2014     :   from
:           :           :           :           :
:              :   2013

:—————————–———————————————-
————–
:1,000 head  1,000 head    pounds      pounds    million
pounds million pounds   percent
:

Arizona …….:     190         193       1,880       1,915           357
370         3.6
California ….:   1,780       1,779       1,875       1,930         3,338
3,433         2.8
Colorado ……:     137         145       2,030       2,105           278
305         9.7
Florida …….:     123         123       1,400       1,470           172
181         5.2
Idaho ………:     569         579       1,950       2,010         1,110
1,164         4.9
Illinois ……:      97          93       1,570       1,600           152
149        -2.0
Indiana …….:     178         179       1,790       1,820           319
326         2.2
Iowa ……….:     206         207       1,820       1,885           375
390         4.0
Kansas ……..:     135         143       1,835       1,855           248
265         6.9
Michigan ……:     380         397       2,000       2,050           760
814         7.1
:

Minnesota …..:     463         460       1,610       1,655           745
761         2.1
New Mexico ….:     322         323       2,025       2,050           652
662         1.5
New York ……:     610         615       1,840       1,880         1,122
1,156         3.0
Ohio ……….:     269         267       1,650       1,710           444
457         2.9
Oregon ……..:     123         124       1,690       1,685           208
209         0.5
Pennsylvania ..:     530         530       1,620       1,680           859
890         3.6
South Dakota ..:      95          97       1,830       1,860           174
180         3.4
Texas ………:     440         470       1,820       1,825           801
858         7.1
Utah ……….:      93          96       1,840       1,920           171
184         7.6
Vermont …….:     132         132       1,620       1,680           214
222         3.7
:

Virginia ……:      94          92       1,510       1,580           142
145         2.1
Washington ….:     266         275       1,975       1,995           525
549         4.6
Wisconsin …..:   1,272       1,270       1,795       1,845         2,283
2,343         2.6
:

23-State Total :   8,504       8,589       1,817       1,864        15,449
16,013         3.7
—————————————————————————-
—————————–
1/ Includes dry cows.  Excludes heifers not yet fresh.

2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were
obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of
all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States
use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as
complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small
producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers
near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month.
Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the
mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal
administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication
of data gathering by different government agencies.  Indications of milk cow
inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Surveys.

Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a
combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available
administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are
subject to revision the following month after initial publication for
monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally,
administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of
Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However,
administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these
revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year
based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional
changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the
following year.
Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of
Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of
these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid
quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review
of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this
report, the “Root Mean Square Error” is shown for selected items in the
table below. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based on
past performance and is computed using the differences between first and
final estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for the 23 State milk
production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that
chances are
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current
estimate of 15.5 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out
of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent.

Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past
24 months]
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-
:  Root mean   :  90 percent  :
Difference between first and latest estimate
: square error :  confidence  :         :
:         :               :
:              :    level
:—————————–——————————
Item             :              :              :         :
:         :            Months
:              :              :         :
:         :—————————–
:              :              : Average
:Smallest : Largest : Below latest  : Above latest
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-
:   percent        percent        ——–
1,000 ——-           —– number —–
:

:

Milk production …………..:     0.2            0.3          26         1
81           15               9
:

All Milk cows …………….:     0.1            0.1           4         0
11           10              12
—————————————————————————-
———————————————-

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the
National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional
information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected].

Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ……….. (202) 720-3570

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ……….. (202) 690-2424
Travis Averill – Cattle, Cattle on Feed …… (202) 720-3040
Sherry Bertramsen – Livestock Slaughter …… (202) 720-3240
Doug Bounds – Hogs and Pigs ……………… (202) 720-3106
Donnie Fike – Dairy Products …………….. (202) 690-3236
Mike Miller – Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
Evan Schulz – Sheep and Goats ……………. (202) 720-6147

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here