Winter wheat seeding

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280

ISSN: 1949-1980

Released January 12, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

Planted Acres Down 5 Percent

Winter wheat seeded area for 2015 is expected to total 40.5 million acres,
down 5 percent from 2014. Approximate class acreage breakdowns are: Hard Red
Winter, 29.5 million; Soft Red Winter, 7.50 million; and White Winter,
3.48 million.

Winter Wheat Area Seeded – United States: 2013-2015 (Domestic Units)
——————————

———————————————
:                 Crop year                  :     2015
Crop     :—————————–—————: as a percent
:     2013     :     2014     :     2015     :   of 2014
—————————————————————————
: 1,000 acres    1,000 acres    1,000 acres      percent
:
Winter wheat ..:    43,230         42,399         40,452           95
—————————————————————————

Winter Wheat Area Seeded – United States: 2013-2015 (Metric Units)
—————————————————————————
:                 Crop year                  :     2015
Crop     :—————————–—————: as a percent
:     2013     :     2014     :     2015     :   of 2014
—————————————————————————
:   hectares       hectares       hectares       percent
:
Winter wheat ..:  17,494,750     17,158,450     16,370,520         95
—————————————————————————

Winter wheat: Planted area for harvest in 2015 is estimated at 40.5 million
acres, down 5 percent from 2014 and 6 percent below 2013. Seeding began in
August and by the end of September was well ahead the 5-year average pace.
By the middle of November, seeding was mostly complete.

Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat seeded area is expected to be 29.5 million
acres, down 3 percent from 2014. Acreage changes from last year are mixed
across the growing region. Growers in Colorado, Kansas, Montana, North
Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas planted significantly less acreage this year
while large acreage increases are estimated in Nebraska and South Dakota.
Record low acreage was seeded in Utah. By November 23, Hard Red Winter wheat
conditions were varied across States from last year with most acreage rated
in fair to good condition.

Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat seeded area is about 7.50 million acres, down
12 percent from last year. Acreage decreases from last year are expected in
most SRW growing States with significant acreage decreases estimated in
Illinois and Missouri.

White Winter wheat seeded area totals nearly 3.48 million acres, up 2
percent from 2014. Planted acreage in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, and
Washington) are up from last year. Planting got off to a normal start but by
the middle of October progress was behind the 5-year average pace in Idaho
and Washington. By November 9, seeding was virtually complete in the region.

Durum wheat: Seedings in Arizona and California for 2015 harvest are
estimated at 155,000 acres, up 44 percent from 2014 and 7 percent above
2013.
Water allocation for the crop in the Imperial Valley was greatly reduced
over the past year. Nonetheless, no major problems in the development of the
crop have been reported. Planting has progressed well for both the San
Joaquin Valley and Imperial Valley.

This report was approved on January 12, 2015.

Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Michael T. Scuse

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
James M. Harris

Winter Wheat Area Seeded – States and United States: 2013-2015
—————————————————————————-
——–
:                    Crop year                     :
2015
State     :—————————–———————:  as a
percent
:      2013      :      2014      :      2015      :    of
2014
—————————————————————————-
——–
:  1,000 acres      1,000 acres      1,000 acres
percent
:

Alabama ……..:        310              255              195
76
Arizona ……..:         12                8                9
113
Arkansas …….:        680              465              390
84
California …..:        620              460              450
98
Colorado …….:      2,300            2,750            2,500
91
Delaware …….:         85               80               75
94
Florida ……..:         25               15               20
133
Georgia ……..:        430              300              320
107
Idaho ……….:        780              780              750
96
Illinois …….:        880              740              550
74
:

Indiana ……..:        460              390              360
92
Iowa ………..:         30               26               24
92
Kansas ………:      9,500            9,600            9,400
98
Kentucky …….:        700              630              640
102
Louisiana ……:        265              160              130
81
Maryland …….:        345              340              335
99
Michigan …….:        620              570              500
88
Minnesota ……:         27               42               48
114
Mississippi ….:        400              230              150
65
Missouri …….:      1,080              880              650
74
:

Montana ……..:      2,000            2,500            2,300
92
Nebraska …….:      1,470            1,550            1,700
110
Nevada ………:         23               15               14
93
New Jersey …..:         34               33               30
91
New Mexico …..:        440              380              350
92
New York …….:        125              120              105
88
North Carolina .:        990              830              770
93
North Dakota …:        215              870              400
46
Ohio ………..:        660              620              540
87
Oklahoma …….:      5,600            5,300            5,100
96
:

Oregon ………:        790              750              780
104
Pennsylvania …:        185              185              190
103
South Carolina .:        280              230              195
85
South Dakota …:      1,300            1,210            1,480
122
Tennessee ……:        640              530              500
94
Texas ……….:      6,300            6,000            5,900
98
Utah ………..:        120              120              120
100
Virginia …….:        335              290              300
103
Washington …..:      1,700            1,700            1,800
106
West Virginia ..:          9               10                7
70
Wisconsin ……:        315              295              230
78
Wyoming ……..:        150              140              145
104
:

United States ..:     43,230           42,399           40,452
95
—————————————————————————-
——–

Durum Wheat Area Seeded – States and United States: 2013-2015 [Blank cells
indicate estimation period has not begun]
—————————————————————————-
——–
:                    Crop year                     :
2015
State     :—————————–———————:  as a
percent
:      2013      :      2014      :    2015 1/     :    of
2014
—————————————————————————-
——–
:  1,000 acres      1,000 acres      1,000 acres
percent
:

Arizona ……..:        75               73             115
158
California …..:        70               35              40
114
Idaho ……….:        11               11

Montana ……..:       450              435

North Dakota …:       790              840

South Dakota …:         4                4

:

United States ..:     1,400            1,398

—————————————————————————-
——–
1/ Indicated 2015 area seeded for all six States and the United States will
be
published in “Prospective Plantings” released March 2015.

Statistical Methodology

Survey procedures: The estimates in this report are based primarily on
surveys conducted the first two weeks of December. The December Agricultural
Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of over 83,000 farm
operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in
the United States have a chance to be selected. These operators were
contacted by mail, internet, telephone, or personal interview to obtain
information on crop acreage, yield, and production for the 2014 crop year
and winter wheat and Durum wheat seedings for the 2015 crop year.

Estimating procedures: National, Regional, State, and grower reported data
were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates.
Each State Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the
Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). Survey data are compiled to the
National level and are reviewed at this level independently of each State’s
review.
Estimates were based on survey data and the historical relationship of
official estimates to survey data.

Revision policy: These estimates will not be revised; instead, new forecasts
will be made throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made
after harvest and published in the Small Grains Annual Summary report at the
end of September.

Reliability: The survey used to make acreage estimates is subject to
sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common to all surveys. The
survey indications are subject to sampling variability because not all
operations with winter wheat are included in the sample. This variability,
as measured by the relative standard error at the National level, is
approximately
1.8 percent for winter wheat. This means that chances are approximately 95
out of 100 that survey estimates for acres will be within plus or minus
3.6 percent for winter wheat.

Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission,
duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured
directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data
collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency
and reasonableness.

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the
National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional
information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch……………………(202) 720-2127

Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops Section…………… (202) 720-2127
Brent Chittenden – Oats, Rye, Wheat………………. (202) 720-8068
Angie Considine – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum…. (202) 720-5944
Tony Dahlman – Crop Weather, Barley………………. (202) 720-7621
Chris Hawthorn – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet……… (202) 720-9526
James Johanson – County Estimates, Hay……………. (202) 690-8533
Anthony Prillaman – Peanuts, Rice………………… (202) 720-2127
Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.. (202) 720-7369

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