Turkeys raised

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345

ISSN: 1949-1972

Released September 30, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

Turkeys Raised Down 2 Percent from 2013

Turkeys Raised in the United States during 2014 is forecasted at 235
million, down 2 percent from the number raised during 2013.

A combination of six states account for nearly two-thirds of the turkeys
produced in the United States during 2014. The largest turkey producing
state is Minnesota, at 45.0 million turkeys, up 2 percent from the previous
year.
Arkansas produced 29.0 million turkeys, which is up 4 percent from the
previous year. North Carolina decreased by 18 percent from last year,
producing 28.0 million turkeys. Indiana increased by 9 percent from a year
ago to 19.0 million turkeys. Missouri decreased by 6 percent from last year,
producing 16.0 million turkeys. Virginia increased the number of turkeys
raised compared to the previous year by 3 percent now at 16.0 million.

Number of Turkeys Raised – States and United States: 2013 and 2014 [Excludes
young turkeys lost]
—————————————————————————-

:         Number raised         :   2014 as

State            :—————————––:   percent

:     2013      :     2014      :   of 2013

—————————————————————————-

:    —— 1,000 head —–        percent

:

Arkansas …………………:     28,000          29,000          104

California ……………….:     13,000          11,000           85

Indiana ………………….:     17,500          19,000          109

Iowa 1/ ………………….:        (D)          11,000          (X)

Minnesota ………………..:     44,000          45,000          102

Missouri …………………:     17,000          16,000           94

North Carolina ……………:     34,000          28,000           82

Ohio …………………….:      5,500           6,000          109

Pennsylvania ……………..:      7,000           7,000          100

South Carolina 2/ …………:     12,000             (D)          (X)

:

South Dakota ……………..:      4,300           4,300          100

Utah …………………….:      4,000           4,400          110

Virginia …………………:     15,500          16,000          103

West Virginia …………….:      3,100           3,100          100

:

Other States 3/ …………..:     35,100          35,200          (X)

:

United States …………….:    240,000         235,000           98

—————————————————————————-

(D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.

(X) Not applicable.

1/  Included in other states in 2013.

2/  Included in other states in 2014.

3/  Includes State estimates not shown and States withheld to avoid

disclosing data for individual operations.

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: Data for turkey raised estimates are collected from all
known operations raising 1,000 or more turkeys annually. Individual NASS
field offices maintain a list of all known turkey grow-out operations to
update their lists. Approximately 400 turkey grow-out operations are
contacted in September and February. The data collected were received by
electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal
interviews.

Estimating Procedures: Turkeys raised preliminary estimates include young
turkeys intended for meat production and breeder turkeys reaching maturity
during the calendar year. These estimates exclude turkeys lost to disease or
those destroyed. Placement of turkey poults from the monthly Turkey Hatchery
Survey and indications from the September Turkeys Raised Survey provide the
basis for the preliminary estimates published in September. Final estimates,
published in April, use indications from the February Turkeys Raised Survey
in addition to updated hatchery data. Other indications for the final
estimates are obtained from monthly slaughter totals and check-off data
provided by individual State turkey or poultry associations.

Revision Policy: Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision
when final raised estimates are made in April. Revisions are primarily based
on updated hatchery and slaughter data. Estimates will also be reviewed
after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No
revisions will be made after that date.

Reliability: Turkey raised estimates are based on a census of all known
turkey grow-out operations and therefore have no sampling error. However,
estimates are subject to errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes
in reporting, recording, and processing of the data. While the affects of
these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict
quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review
of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the
“Root Mean Square Error” for number of turkeys raised is shown in the
following table. The “Root Mean Square Error” is a statistical measure based
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and
final estimates. The “Root Mean Square Error” for number of turkeys raised
over the past 10 years is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of
3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of
235 million turkeys by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that
the difference will not exceed 3.3 percent.

Reliability of September Turkeys Raised Estimates [Based on data for the
past ten years]
—————————————————————————-
——————————————-
:  Root mean   :  90 percent  :
Difference between first and latest estimate
: square error :  confidence  :        :
:        :               :
:              :    level
:—————————–—————————–
Item             :              :              :        :
:        :             Years
:              :              :        :
:        :—————————–
:              :              :Average
:Smallest:Largest : Below latest  : Above latest
—————————————————————————-
——————————————-
:   percent        percent      ——– 1,000
——–          —– number —-
:

Number raised …………….:     1.8            3.3        3,687     500
8,540          7               3
—————————————————————————-
——————————————-

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the
National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional
information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to [email protected]

Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch …………………………….
(202) 720-3570

Bruce Boess, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section ………..
(202) 720-4447
Alissa Cowell-Mytar – Cold Storage …………………………….
(202) 720-4751
Heidi Gleich – Broiler Hatchery, Chicken Hatchery ……………….
(202) 720-0585
Michael Klamm – Poultry Slaughter, Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ..
(202) 690-3237
Tom Kruchten – Census of Aquaculture …………………………..
(202) 690-4870
Kim Linonis – Layers, Eggs ……………………………………
(202) 690-8632
Joshua O’Rear – Honey ………………………………………..
(202) 690-3676
Vacant – Catfish Production, Egg Products, Mink, Trout Production …
(202) 720-3570

Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following
ways:

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web
site: http://www.nass.usda.gov

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For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
[email protected].

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